Thrilling Thursday – Up and Up We Go!


Retail Gross sales are Up 10%.

Isn't that thrilling?  9.8% really however shut sufficient.  In a typical month, Retail Gross sales common $550Bn so up 10% is $55Bn and we solely needed to distribute $300Bn value of Stimulus Checks to get it (to not point out March has 10% extra days than February, however who's counting?).  Aren't economics enjoyable?  You may manipulate the info to get any consequence you need if you happen to plan forward!  

It's my job to chop by means of all of the BS and let you know  what is basically taking place.  You must look behind the info, like the value of gasoline rising 10% in February and Gasoline Gross sales contributed $10Bn (20%) of the $50Bn bump.  Restaurant Gross sales had been up 13.4% as eating places re-opened and outfitters jumped 18.3% as individuals went to malls for the primary time in a yr.  

That is, typically, excellent news however to get all excited a few report that, in impact, reveals that 20% of the stimulus checks had been spent by the individuals who received them – just isn’t actually a stable premise for forecasting future development.  Nonetheless, the Dow is making new highs and the S&P is close to them because it's a superb headline to begin the day with within the markets.






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