The Indicator to Look ahead to DIS and $SPX | The Aware Investor


The present chart of Walt Disney Co. (DIS) offers an ideal case examine on how the Relative Power Index (RSI) can be utilized to raised perceive the underlying pattern in a inventory.

Disney rallied off its March 2020 low together with most different names, however the true outperformance started in November 2020. That is the place we see the inventory gapping greater on earnings releases, because it turned clear on the Disney+ streaming service would greater than compensate for the COVID-19 influence on their theme parks.

After topping out simply above $200 in March 2021, the inventory dropped about 18% earlier than settling into a variety between $160 and $185. 

Have a look at the RSI indicator and the way it behaved throughout the first half of this chart. The indicator tended to grow to be overbought on rallies and likewise tended to backside out round 40 on market pullbacks. Now take a look at the RSI indicator within the subsequent part, from March 2020 via the current. See how the RSI now tends to grow to be oversold on pullbacks and often tops out round 60?

Discovering Connie Brown’s work on adjusting the overbought/oversold ranges on oscillators was a key second for me early on in my technical evaluation profession. What a incredible enchancment on the unique work by Welles Wilder, which permits us to make use of the RSI as a approach of not simply figuring out short-term reversals, but additionally defining the longer-term pattern.

Word: each books are on my really useful studying record right here!

This week, Disney gapped greater after earnings as they indicated that the theme parks enterprise was bettering and that Disney+ stays in progress mode. So what would we have to see on the chart to substantiate a rotation from bearish pattern to bullish pattern?

First, DIS would want to interrupt above its most up-to-date swing excessive round $160. That may point out that sufficient shopping for energy has emerged to overwhelm the promoting stress that has been prevalent for months on this chart. Subsequent, I might wish to see the RSI break above 60, which might put the RSI in a extra traditional bullish vary. There have been quite a few worth bounces during the last six months, however none of them have been capable of make new swing highs with the RSI breaking above 60. Lastly, the next low can be the ultimate affirmation of a rotation from bear pattern to bull pattern. That may counsel that patrons are prepared to purchase on the dips and purchase at the next stage than beforehand seen.

How can we apply this lesson to the S&P 500 chart?

The final time the RSI was overbought was in early November, when the S&P first reached 4700. Subsequent up thrusts in December and January noticed the RSI fail to achieve a lot above that essential 60 stage. Additionally be aware the bearish momentum divergence, with greater highs in worth into January whereas the RSI was making decrease peaks!

The bullishness of the transfer greater this week needs to be questioned when the RSI fails to achieve above 60. So long as the RSI stays under 60, and the S&P fails to interrupt above earlier swing highs round 4600, this can be a chart in distribution mode.

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David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

Disclaimer: This weblog is for instructional functions solely and shouldn’t be construed as monetary recommendation. The concepts and methods ought to by no means be used with out first assessing your individual private and monetary scenario, or with out consulting a monetary skilled. 

The writer doesn’t have a place in talked about securities on the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely these of the writer, and don’t in any approach characterize the views or opinions of some other particular person or entity.

David Keller

In regards to the writer:
, CMT is Chief Market Strategist at, the place he helps buyers reduce behavioral biases via technical evaluation. He’s a frequent host on StockCharts TV, and he relates mindfulness methods to investor choice making in his weblog, The Aware Investor.

David can also be President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Analysis LLC, a boutique funding analysis agency centered on managing threat via market consciousness. He combines the strengths of technical evaluation, behavioral finance, and knowledge visualization to determine funding alternatives and enrich relationships between advisors and shoppers.
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