A majority of professional investors expect the United States to cede sole dominance in artificial intelligence within five years, sharing the top position with China rather than holding it outright. That is the central finding of a study commissioned by London-based thematic equity manager Robocap, which surveyed 100 senior investors at pension funds, insurance asset managers, family offices and wealth managers collectively overseeing $513 billion in assets.
Respondents were drawn from eight markets: the UK, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Germany and Switzerland. The research was conducted in May 2026 by independent firm Pureprofile using an online methodology.
The geopolitical read
Fifty-six per cent of participants said the US and China would be joint leaders in AI within five years, while a third expected the US to retain its current position alone. Just 2% believed China would overtake the US outright. A smaller cohort, roughly one in twelve respondents (8%), expected a third country or regional bloc to emerge as a leader, a finding that may reflect growing confidence in the Gulf and South-East Asian investment programmes.
The framing reflects a widely-held view among institutional allocators that China has already closed ground in specific dimensions of AI competition: patent volume, the production of research graduates and some applied robotics categories. The US retains an acknowledged structural lead in private capital deployment, frontier model design and high-end semiconductor architecture, but investors appear to be pricing in erosion of that edge over the medium term.
Jonathan Cohen, founder and chief investment officer at Robocap, said: “The US has long dominated the global AI race but professional investors are increasingly convinced that dominance will end. The clear message for investors is that they have to think globally and look beyond the traditional powerhouse of the US and be open to opportunities worldwide.”
Regional expectations and the regulation debate
Near-universal optimism surrounds the UK and Middle East. All respondents expected the UAE and Saudi Arabia to make meaningful progress toward their stated ambitions to become global AI research and data-centre hubs, with around 60% describing their prospects as very successful. Virtually all participants (99%) expected the value of the UK AI market, currently the third-largest by value, to grow over the next five years, with 28% anticipating a dramatic increase.
On regulation, the survey produced an unambiguous result: every respondent agreed that AI regulation in the UK and the European Union is too stringent and has constrained innovation, including 30% who strongly agreed. That consensus sits in tension with the regulatory direction of travel. The EU AI Act entered phased application in 2024 and 2025, bringing binding obligations on high-risk AI systems, while the UK has opted for a principles-based, sector-led framework that is generally regarded as lighter-touch than Brussels but is still seen by these investors as a brake on development.
The energy and sovereignty angle also drew a clear majority view: 60% of respondents said AI sovereignty considerations should take priority over limiting energy production in national energy policy, against 40% who favoured the climate-limiting approach. That split will be familiar to policymakers navigating data-centre energy demand against net-zero commitments across Europe and the Gulf.
Context for allocators
The survey is notable as a sentiment read rather than a market forecast. Robocap, whose UCITS fund invests exclusively in listed pure-play robotics, automation and AI companies globally, has an interest in promoting a diversified geographic view of the sector, and the findings align neatly with that investment thesis. Investors reviewing the data should read it alongside independent market-sizing and geopolitical analysis.
That said, the direction of travel across institutional allocators is consistent with broader trends: sovereign wealth funds and pension schemes in the Gulf are committing capital to AI infrastructure at scale, and several Asian markets are accelerating domestic model development in response to US export controls on advanced chips. Whether those trends translate into genuine leadership parity with the US within the five-year window remains the operative question for portfolio construction.
AI level 1 of 5: written by Darlyn Ho; AI helped with tone, structure or wording; edited and signed off by Mark Walker, Editorial Director. What the levels mean
