Trump officials are weighing another possible face-to-face with Iranian leadership, according to CNN. That’s likely a soft float towards an earlier report that cited Iranian sources and said a meeting would take place on Thursday.
In any case, the oil market is speaking much louder than the headlines.
WTI is now trading at $97.19 from a high of $105.63 shortly after the open. That’s a huge range and reflects growing optimism.
The best signs came from Trump himself. He said Iran had called earlier in the day and was positive about the implications. He continues to focus comments on nuclear rather than the missile program or sanctions. What’s less clear is what will happen with Hormuz but it’s hard to see any kind of quick resolution unless Iran reopens it.
It’s not just oil sending positive signals. US equity futures started the day in deeply negative territory but are now 120 points off the lows, and up 0.6%. The euro is higher on the day and Treasury yields are lower, reflecting less worry about inflation problems. Even bitcoin has turned around and is higher on the day at $72K after falling on the weekend after the initial headlines about a breakdown in talks.
As for oil, the worry is that it will be problematic to replace the missing barrels. Every day about 13 million barrels aren’t produced or shipped and that’s going to take a long time to rebuild (at best) in a market that might have 1 mbpd in excess capacity. Even that much could be in doubt once the scope of the war-related damage in the Middle East (and Russia) becomes clear.
For now though, the oil market is offering up strong signs of relief, even though the headlines haven’t yet caught up.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
