Here is the latest from Trump:
We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Notably, this came out after the market closed. In the past three weeks, he’s escalated things immediately after the market closed. This time, he’s de-escalating or at least indicating that he could leave.
What he’s hinting at here is a strategy that many have speculated about, including us. He will simply declare ‘mission accomplished’ and leave the mess for everyone else to clean up.
He said the Strait will “need to be guarded and policed… by other nations who use it”, ruling out the USA. He did say the US will help if asked but I imagine that would come at a high price. He also has pivoted from saying that securing the Strait will be easy for the US (this morning) to that it will be “easy … for them”.
Regardless of the politics, this post significantly diminishes the chance of a US land invasion or a protracted war. It sounds like Trump is planning to bail out and leave Iran’s regime in place. Now we will have to wait to see what the plan is from Iran and Gulf countries. I can see Iran demanding that those countries close US bases.
In any case, there is a statement from Europe, Japan, Canada and Bahrain saying they’re willing to join efforts for Hormuz safe passage.
