Details:
Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8
Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last month
New orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat month
Employment edged down to -7 from -6 last month
Local business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last month
Prices paid and received growth rates slowed in February to 6.52 from 7.06 last month
Prices received also slowed to 4.25 from 4.58 last month
Capital expenditures rose to -5 from -16 last month
Services expenditures -20 versus -16 last month
Firms expect further moderation in price growth over the next 12 months**
6 month forward expectations:
Future local business conditions improved to 22 from 19
Future shipments and new orders eased slightly but remained solidly positive. Shipments fell to 29 from 34. New orders fell to 35 from 36 las mont
Employment expectations rose to 6 from 2 last month
The regional index remains in the negative for the index. The 3 month average has not been above the 0 level since 2022.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index serves as a monthly “pulse check” for the industrial sector across the Mid-Atlantic region, covering Maryland, Virginia, the Carolinas, D.C., and most of West Virginia. It is a composite indicator derived from three key pillars: new orders, shipments, and employment levels. A reading above zero indicates expansion, while a reading below zero signals contraction. Because this district represents a diverse slice of American industry, the index is widely watched by economists and investors as a “canary in the coal mine” for the broader U.S. manufacturing economy, often providing early signals of shifting demand or supply chain trends before national data is released.
