EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction will likely be muted given no changes to economic or policy outlook.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we just have Fed’s Waller giving a speech on economic outlook. He’s one of the most respected governors and has also been a “leading indicator” for Fed’s policy path. He’s a dove, so if he keeps his usual stance, it’s not going to change anything for the market. He’s been the first focusing on labour market weakness and the first calling for rate cuts. His views were seen as politically-driven but eventually it turned out that he was right on just about everything.
Right now, he’s still sceptical about labour market stabilisation that other members are touting following the recent jobs data. If he were to support the stabilisation view, then it would be taken as a change in stance to neutral and would trigger a hawkish repricing.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 11:00 GMT/06:00 ET – BoE’s Taylor (dove – voter)
- 13:00 GMT/08:00 ET – Fed’s Waller (dove – voter)
- 17:30 GMT/12:30 ET – ECB’s President Lagarde (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
