JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q1 2022 Earnings Name Transcript

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JPMorgan Chase ( JPM -3.44% )
Q1 2022 Earnings Name
Apr 13, 2022, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Ready Remarks
• Questions and Solutions
• Name Individuals

Ready Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, girls and gents. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase’s first quarter 2022 earnings name. [Operator instructions] At the moment, I want to flip the decision over to JPMorgan Chase’s chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and chief monetary officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr.

Barnum, please go forward.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. The presentation is offered on our web site, and please confer with the disclaimer within the again. Beginning on Web page 1, the agency reported web earnings of $8.3 billion, EPS of $2.63, and income of $31.6 billion, and delivered an ROTCE of 16%.

These outcomes embrace roughly $900 million of credit score reserve builds, which I am going to cowl in additional element shortly, in addition to $500 million of losses in credit score changes and different in CIB. Concerning mortgage progress, we’re persevering with to see optimistic developments with loans up 8% yr on yr and 1% quarter on quarter ex PPP, with the sequential progress pushed by a continued pickup in demand in our wholesale companies, together with ongoing power. On Web page 2, we now have some extra element on our outcomes. Income of 31.6 billion was down 1.5 billion, or 5% yr on yr.

NII ex markets was up 1 billion, or 9%, on steadiness sheet progress and better charges, partially offset by decrease NII from PPP loans. NIR ex markets was down 2.2 billion, or 17%, predominantly pushed by decrease IB charges, decrease residence lending manufacturing income, losses in credit score changes and different in CIB, in addition to funding securities losses in company. And markets income was down 300 million, or 3%, in opposition to a file first quarter final yr. Bills of 19.2 billion have been up roughly $500 million, or 2%, predominantly on larger investments and structural bills, largely offset by decrease quantity and revenue-related bills.

Credit score prices have been 1.5 billion for the quarter. We have constructed 902 million in reserves, pushed by rising the chance of draw back dangers on account of excessive inflation and the conflict in Ukraine, in addition to builds for Russia-associated exposures, and CIB in AWM. Internet charge-offs of 582 million have been down yr on yr and akin to final quarter and remained traditionally low throughout our portfolios. On the steadiness sheet and capital on Web page 3, our CET1 ratio ended at 11.9%, down 120 foundation factors from the prior quarter.

As a reminder, we exited the fourth quarter with an elevated buffer to soak up anticipated modifications this quarter, the most important being SA-CCR adoption, in addition to some pickup and seasonal exercise. Along with these anticipated gadgets, there have been a few different drivers. The speed sell-off led to AOCI drawdowns in our AFS portfolio. However consider, all else equal, these mark-to-market losses accrete again to capital by time and as securities mature.

And worth will increase throughout commodities resulted in larger counterparty credit score and market threat RWA. Whereas, in fact, the surroundings is unsure, many of those results at the moment are within the rearview mirror. And in consequence, we imagine that our present capital and future earnings profile place as nicely to proceed supporting enterprise progress whereas assembly rising capital necessities as we glance forward. With that, let’s go to our companies, beginning with shopper and neighborhood banking on Web page 4.

CCB reported web earnings of two.9 billion on income of 12.2 billion, which was down 2% yr on yr. In shopper and enterprise banking, income was up 8%, predominantly pushed by progress in deposit balances and consumer funding belongings, partially offset by deposit margin compression. Deposits have been up 18% yr on yr and 4% quarter on quarter, in keeping with the final quarter. And consumer funding belongings have been up 9% yr on yr, largely pushed by flows along with market efficiency.

In residence lending, income was down 20% yr on yr on decrease manufacturing income from each decrease margins and volumes in opposition to a really robust quarter final yr, largely offset by larger web servicing income. Originations of 24.7 billion declined 37% with the rise in charges. And in consequence, mortgage loans have been down 3%. Shifting to card and auto, income was down 8% yr on yr, totally on robust new card account originations resulting in larger acquisition prices.

Card outstandings have been up 11%, and revolving balances have continued to develop, ending the quarter above the primary quarter of ’21 ranges. And in auto, originations have been 8.4 billion, down 25% because of the lack of auto provide, whereas loans have been up 3%, Concerning shopper spend, mixed credit score and debit spend was up 21% yr on yr, with progress stronger in credit score as we see a continued pickup in journey and eating. And because the quarter progressed, we noticed a strong reacceleration of T&E spend, up 64%. Bills of seven.7 billion have been up 7% yr on yr, pushed by larger investments and structural bills, partially offset by decrease quantity and revenue-related bills.

Subsequent, the CIB on Web page 5. CIB reported web earnings of 4.4 billion on income of 13.5 billion for the primary quarter. Funding banking income of two.1 billion was down 28% versus the prior yr. IB charges have been down 31% yr on yr.

We maintained our No. 1 rank with a pockets share of 8%. In advisory, charges have been up 18%, and it was the very best first quarter ever, benefiting from the closing of offers introduced in 2021. Debt underwriting charges have been down 20%, primarily pushed by leveraged finance as issuers contended with market volatility.

And in fairness underwriting, charges have been down 76% on decrease issuance exercise, significantly in North America and EMEA. Shifting to markets, whole income was 8.8 billion, down 3% in opposition to a file first quarter final yr. Mounted earnings was comparatively flat, pushed by a decline in securitized merchandise, the place rising charges have slowed down the tempo of mortgage manufacturing, largely offset by progress in currencies and rising markets and commodities on elevated consumer exercise and a unstable market. Fairness markets have been down 7% in opposition to an all-time file quarter final yr.

This quarter, nonetheless, was our second greatest, with sturdy consumer exercise throughout each derivatives and money. And prime continued to carry out nicely with consumer balances hovering round all-time highs. Credit score changes and different was a lack of 524 million, pushed by funding unfold widening, in addition to credit score valuation changes referring to each will increase in commodities exposures and markdowns of derivatives receivables from Russia-associated counterparties. Let me take a second right here to deal with the broadly reported scenario within the nickel market because it pertains to our outcomes this quarter.

We have been hedging positions for shoppers intently linked to nickel producers who typically promote ahead a portion of the approaching yr’s manufacturing. The intense worth actions created margin calls, which we and different banks are serving to to deal with. As a result of that is counterparty-related, not buying and selling, it seems within the credit score changes and different line the place it contributed about 120 million to the reported loss I simply talked about. It additionally drove roughly half of the rise in market threat RWA that I famous on the capital slide and was a driver of upper reported VAR, which will even be elevated in our upcoming filings.

Funds income was 1.9 billion, up 33% yr on yr, or up 9% excluding web positive factors on fairness investments, pushed by continued progress in charges, deposit balances, and better charges. Safety providers income of 1.1 billion was up 2% yr on yr, pushed by larger charges and progress in charges. Bills of seven.3 billion have been up 3% yr on yr, largely on account of larger structural bills and investments, largely offset by decrease quantity and revenue-related bills. Shifting to industrial banking on Web page 6.

Business banking reported web earnings of 850 million and an ROE of 13%. Income of two.4 billion was flat yr on yr, with larger funds income and deposit balances offset by decrease funding banking income. Gross funding banking income of 729 million was down 35%, pushed by each fewer giant offers and fewer circulate exercise. Bills of 1.1 billion have been up 17% yr on yr, largely pushed by investments and volume- and revenue-related bills.

Deposits have been down 2% quarter on quarter as consumer balances are seasonally highest at yearend. Loans have been up 5% yr on yr and up 3% quarter on quarter, excluding PIP. C&I loans have been up 3% sequentially ex PPP, reflecting larger revolver utilization and originations throughout center market and company consumer banking. CRE loans have been up 3%, pushed by robust mortgage originations and funding throughout the portfolio.

After which to finish our strains of enterprise, AWM on Web page 7. Asset and wealth administration reported web earnings of 1 billion with a pre-tax margin of 30%. Income of 4.3 billion was up 6% yr on yr, as progress in deposits and loans and better administration charges and efficiency charges and different investments have been partially offset by deposit margin compression and the absence of funding valuation positive factors from the prior yr. Bills of two.9 billion have been up 11% yr on yr, predominantly pushed by larger structural bills and investments, in addition to larger quantity and revenue-related bills.

For the quarter, web long-term inflows of 19 billion have been optimistic throughout all channels, with power in equities, multiasset, and options. And in liquidity, we noticed web outflows of 52 billion. AUM $3 trillion and general consumer belongings of $4.1 trillion, up 4% and eight% yr on yr, respectively, have been pushed by robust web inflows. And eventually, loans have been up 3% quarter on quarter, with continued power in mortgages and securities-based lending, whereas deposits have been up 9%.

Turning to company on Web page 8. Company reported a web lack of 856 million. Income was a lack of 881 million, down 408 million yr on yr. NII was up 319 million because of the impression of upper charges, and NIR was down 727 million on account of losses on legacy fairness investments versus positive factors final yr, in addition to roughly $400 million of web realized losses on funding securities this quarter.

Bills of 184 million have been decrease by 692 million yr on yr, primarily because of the contribution to the agency’s basis within the prior yr. Subsequent, the outlook on Web page 9. We nonetheless count on NII ex markets to be in extra of $53 billion and adjusted bills to be roughly $77 billion. And we’ll replace these and offer you extra shade in investor day subsequent month.

So, to wrap up, as soon as once more, this quarter, the corporate’s efficiency was robust in a very unstable and difficult surroundings. We helped our shoppers navigate very troublesome markets, supplied assist to reduction efforts, and applied financial sanctions of unprecedented complexity with a number of directives from governments world wide. And naturally, our ideas stay with everybody, together with our workers affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trying forward, the U.S.

financial system stays sturdy, however we’re watching excessive inflation, the reversal of QE, and rising charges, in addition to the continuing results of the conflict on the worldwide financial system. With that, operator, please open the road for Q&A.

Questions & Solutions:

Operator

Please stand by. And our first query is coming from John McDonald from Autonomous Analysis. Please go forward.

John McDonald — Autonomous Analysis — Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, Jeremy. I used to be questioning in regards to the web curiosity earnings outlook. I do know it appears like we’ll get extra in investor day, nevertheless it’s similar to what you gave in mid-February.

And clearly, fee expectations have superior since then. May you give us just a little little bit of shade on what sort of assumptions are underlying the web curiosity earnings ex markets outlook?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. Good morning, John. Good query. Yeah, look, clearly, given what’s occurred by way of Fed hike expectations and what’s getting priced into the entrance of the curve, we’d truly count on the surplus a part of in extra of 53 billion to be greater than it was at Credit score Suisse.

So, , to dimension that, , in all probability a few billion {dollars}. However we do not need to get too exact at this level. We need to run our bottoms-up course of. We — , there have been very huge strikes, and we will need to get it proper.

And so, we’ll give, , extra element about that at investor day.

John McDonald — Autonomous Analysis — Analyst

OK. And as my follow-up, might you give us some ideas in regards to the markets associated at NII? What issues ought to we take into consideration there, whether or not it is seasonality or the way it’s affected by rising charges?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. I suppose I might direct you to my feedback, I believe one or two quarters in the past, on this. However typically talking, that quantity is fairly correlated to the short-term fee. So, , all else equal, you may see a headwind in there because the Fed hikes come by, which, , basically, on the geography, we’d are inclined to count on that to be offset in NIR.

However it’s noisy. It will possibly shift as a operate of, , obscure steadiness sheet composition points, as I’ve talked about up to now, . And so, that is why we do not focus an excessive amount of on that quantity.

John McDonald — Autonomous Analysis — Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Thanks, John.

Operator

And the following query is coming from Ken Usdin from Jefferies. Please go forward.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

All proper. Thanks. Good morning. Jeremy, simply wished to comply with up in your feedback about capital and, , with the ability to present room for natural progress.

You realize, with 5.2 SLR, 11.9 CET1 versus your longer-term targets, are you able to discuss what meaning by way of the buyback potential from right here? And do any of the RWA inflation gadgets come again off that you just simply, , noticed within the first quarter? Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. Thanks. So, let me simply give some high-level feedback in regards to the CET1 trajectory and so forth. So, as , we went into the quarter with elevated buffers, understanding that we’d have denominator progress on account of the adoption of SA-CCR.

And so, in fact, that occurred. And, , we’d have anticipated roughly to be at 12 .5, proper in the course of the vary for this quarter. After all, it was an uncommon quarter in a variety of methods. And so, we noticed RWA inflation from market threat, which we have talked about.

And the AOCI drawdown and, , a variety of different barely smaller components producing the 11.9. From the place we sit right here, to your level, a variety of these things are, the truth is, going to bleed again in comparatively rapidly, some sooner than others. So, we’d count on a good portion of the RWA inflation to bleed out, clearly, to decay out. The AOCI drawdown will clearly come again over time.

And doubtless, most significantly, , to the prior query, the upper fee outlook is — it is bettering the income outlook, which is able to, in fact, accrete to capital. Um, so then should you line that up in opposition to the form of rising minimums, in fact, we now have the rise within the G-SIB requirement within the first quarter of ’23 coming in. After which there’s the query on SCB, the place, , we do not know, clearly. However given the countercyclical nature of the stress and the truth that the unemployment launch level is loads decrease and that the unemployment fee is floored within the Fed’s state of affairs, you would possibly count on SCB to be just a little bit larger when it is printed in June, , efficient within the fourth quarter.

However that offers us time to make any changes that we have to make. So, I suppose to summarize, once we put all this collectively between improved earnings technology, a few of the denominator decay results, and the varied levers that we now have out there to tug throughout the dimension of time as new info comes into play, we actually really feel fairly good about our capital place from right here and the trajectory as we glance ahead and minimums, , evolve.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

And only a follow-up there, too, is there something you must contemplate structurally by way of like, , including most well-liked to assist bridge the hole? Or is it simply going to be sufficient to organically construct again with, , presumably, , simply using much less buybacks will permit issues to simply develop again?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. I believe the — I suppose, basically, we have not wished to say loads publicly about our most well-liked actions. As , a few of these devices are callable and, , we now have decisions to make about whether or not or not we name them to regulate to totally different conditions. So, I believe that is an instance of the varieties of levers that we now have out there to tug because the surroundings evolves.

However from the place we sit in the present day, with the numbers that I am taking a look at, , we now have a fairly clear trajectory to get to the place we need to be.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

OK. Thanks, Jeremy.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yup.

Operator

The subsequent one is coming from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley. Please go forward.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Hello. Good morning.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Good morning, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

I had a query for Jamie. In your annual letter, you have talked about the way you count on to realize double-digit market share over time in funds. And after I — what I wished to grasp is should you might unpack that just a little bit, as a result of after I take a look at funds, you have received plenty of totally different sleeves. For instance, in shopper bank cards, you are at 20%, 25%.

In Treasury, I believe you are at 7%. So, might you give us a way as to the place you assume you’re on this whole funds class you are speaking about, what you are anticipating by way of drivers to get to double-digit, and what sort of timeframe you are enthusiastic about there. Thanks.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Yeah, so, Betsy, in order that quantity, the double-digit relating simply to wholesale funds, to not shopper funds, which, clearly, we have already got a reasonably important share. And we have gone from 4.5% to one thing just a little bit north of seven% over the past 5 years. And we’re simply constructing out — and I gave some examples, and I am going to give loads within the investor day developing. We’re constructing all of the issues we’d like, real-time funds, sure blockchain-type issues whereas it is the — simply a few acquisitions.

They’re constructing out our wholesale capabilities to do a much better job for shoppers globally world wide and supported by, what I might say, excellent cyber-risk management, which shoppers really want to, by the best way. So, it is form of throughout the board. There’s nothing mystical about it. However it’s an space we need to win in.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

OK. And attending to double digits is over, , the identical form of time-frame with the identical tempo going from 4 to 7? Otherwise you assume you’ll be able to speed up that —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Yeah, I wasn’t —

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

As a result of I see what’s —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

I wasn’t which means to place a time-frame up, however I might say 5 years. However you may get extra replace on this in investor day.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

OK. After which simply the comply with up right here is, on the NII outlook, the place you indicated, , the curve suggests the plus aspect and, , is it a few billion? And I suppose the query I’ve is, , traditionally, you have been seeking to reinvest that profit from rising charges. You realize, you probably did that final cycle as nicely. You realize, what I hear — what I am listening to is that, , perhaps you do not need to dimension it for us proper now in the present day since you plan on investing it and explaining that at investor day.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

No.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Is {that a} truthful takeaway or not?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

No. No. No. That is —

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

No. No.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

We do not take a look at it that method like we’re reinvesting NII. We — the investing stuff, we take a look at on a regular basis we’re investing. And, , we’re investing some huge cash for the longer term form of throughout the board. However that is not why, as you are saying, as —

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. I imply, I believe basically, , we now have had confidence in delivering our 17% ROTCE by the cycle. We talked just a little bit over the past couple of quarters about, on the time, some short-term headwinds to that, largely as a operate of the speed surroundings and a few different issues. The funding plan is a strategic plan that acknowledges that form of confidence within the 17%.

The truth that that second could also be getting pulled ahead on account of the Fed’s, , response to the financial system has no impression on how we take into consideration spending.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

OK. Nice. Thanks for — Thanks for that.

Operator

The subsequent query is coming from Steve Chubak from Wolfe Analysis. Please go forward.

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Analysis — Analyst

Hey, good morning. So, I wished begin off with the query on QT. Prior to now, you have spoken in regards to the linkage between Fed steadiness sheet discount and deposit outflow expectation for yourselves within the trade. And with the Fed simply outlining a extra aggressive glide path for steadiness sheet discount, how ought to we be enthusiastic about deposit outflow threat? Any views on how information might differ versus final cycle, given a extra aggressive tempo of Fed tightening?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Hey, Steve. So, it is a enjoyable query, so let’s nerd out just a little bit. I am certain Jamie will soar in.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

After which I am going to simplify it for you.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

OK. So, look, I believe we have talked just a little bit about what occurred within the prior cycle, proper? So, you had QE and then you definitely had huge growth in financial institution deposit systemwide growth. After which on the tail finish of that cycle, you had RRP are available, after which RRP has gotten form of fairly huge as QE completed. And so, now as you take a look at doubtlessly form of operating that complete factor in reverse, you would possibly truly count on that the very first thing that might occur is that RRP would get drained and solely later would financial institution deposits begin to shrink.

However I believe you appropriately level out a few of the nuances within the Fed minutes. And while you form of mix all the results collectively, you notice that there is plenty of interacting forces right here. And it is actually, I believe, very clever folks differ on their predictions about what is going on to occur right here. And simply to stipulate a few these.

So, it is value noting for starters that, basically, industrywide mortgage progress outlook is sort of sturdy. And that must be a tailwind for systemwide deposit progress. So, as you be aware, yup, QT will begin in Could and all chance for the minutes headwind. Then, you simply have to take a look at what is going on to occur on the entrance finish of the curve, significantly in payments.

So, the Treasury has to make selections about weighted common maturity and what is smart there. There’s clearly just a little little bit of scarcity of short-dated collateral out there proper now. So, , which may argue for wanting extra provide there. The Fed has to make selections about portfolio administration.

They talked within the minutes about utilizing invoice maturities to fill in gaps and so forth and so forth. And so, these issues are going to work together in varied methods. I believe one factor that is value noting, although, is that should you wind up in a state of the world the place financial institution deposits drained ahead of folks may need in any other case thought, in all chance, that is going to be the lower-value, nonoperating-type deposits. So, , in any case, we’ll see.

However to simplify it for a second, our base case stays modest progress in deposits for us as an organization. And simply pivoting away for a second from the system to us, , from a share perspective, we have taken share in retail deposits, and we really feel nice about that. And in wholesale, , we have had some good wins and a pleasant pipeline of offers there. So, that is the present pondering on that matter.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

So, the reply is we do not know. OK? And also you guys ought to learn economist reviews. However the reality is, initially, it in all probability will not come out of deposits. Over time, it’s going to come out of wholesale after which perhaps shopper.

We’re ready for that. It would not truly imply that a lot to us within the brief run. And the beta, successfully, we do not count on to be that totally different than it was up to now. There are plenty of pluses and minuses.

You may argue an entire bunch of various methods. However the reality is it will not be that a lot totally different, at the very least the primary hundred-basis-point improve.

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Analysis — Analyst

No, that is actually useful shade. Thanks for permitting us to nerd out with you guys on that. Only one extra matter or a follow-up, I ought to say, Jamie, simply within the shareholder letter, you had spoken about how the market’s underestimating the variety of Fed hikes that may be wanted to curb inflation. What’s your expectation across the stage of Fed tightening? I do know it is troublesome to make such predictions, however perhaps should you might simply assist us perceive, given your individual fee outlook, how that is been forming, the way you’re managing extra liquidity, given the numerous capability that you must redeploy a few of these proceeds into higher-yielding securities.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Yeah. So, I believe the implied curve now’s like 2.5% on the finish of the yr and perhaps 3% on the finish of 2023. And look, nobody is aware of. And, , clearly, everybody does their forecasts.

I believe it will be greater than that, OK? I may give you 1,000,000 totally different explanation why due to inflation and nearly deposits. And we have by no means been by ever QT like this. So, it is a new factor for the world. And I believe it is extra considerably essential than different folks assume as a result of the massive change of flows of funds goes to create as folks, , change their funding portfolios.

So, I believe we will be effective as a result of we will serve to assist our prospects and achieve share. So, you’d say, what does it do for JPMorgan Chase? JPMorgan Chase will likely be effective. We received loads of capital, lots — with all nice margins. We have already had the returns we would like and all of the issues like that.

So, , I might simply be cautious. I believe what you need to count on is unstable markets. Once more, that is OK for us, . And the Fed — , we predict the Fed must do what they should do to attempt to handle this financial system and attempt to get to a mushy touchdown, if doable.

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Analysis — Analyst

After which the urge for food to deploy the surplus liquidity?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

No, do not count on that.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. OK. We will depart it there.

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Analysis — Analyst

OK. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The subsequent query is coming from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. Please go forward.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Hello. Thanks. I ponder should you might discuss by the modifications within the macro assumptions for the — to seize that draw back threat in CECL assumptions. Simply because what I need to get to is the place we got here from, the place we’re at now, after which we will impose our ideas on every quarter as we go, simply —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

I do not need to spend so much of time on CECL, OK? I believe it is a full waste of time. Mainly, all we stated is the prospect of a extreme adversarial occasion at 10% larger than it was earlier than. That is all we did. Very fundamental.

And that led to huge —

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

It truly is that straightforward, Glenn.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

And we do not know — and it is a guess. You realize, it is probability-weighted hypothetical, multi-year eventualities that we do the very best we will. However to spend so much of time on earnings calls about CECL swings is a waste of time. It is received nothing to do with the underlying enterprise.

Cost-offs are terribly good, matter of reality, method higher than they need to be. I imply, , center market, 1 foundation level; bank card, 1.5. We’d have informed you the very best it’s going to ever be is 2.5. So, credit score’s excellent.

That can worsen. NII goes to get a lot better. Issues are going to normalize. We’re nonetheless incomes 16% or 17% on tangible fairness.

And, , clearly, you will have — yeah.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

I — the ten% is what I wished as a result of your guess is healthier than my guess. So, that — I admire that.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

I do not — Glenn, with all due respect, I don’t imagine it’s.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

OK. Um, nicely, I imply, pinky guess. So, I believe you may need simply answered, however I need to be sure that I ask it explicitly. The follow-up I’ve on credit score and I do know it is in a lot better form and it depends upon the go-forward, however are you seeing any stresses within the levered components of the debt markets, which means levered mortgage, high-yield CLO non-public credit score.

Something in there that makes you want flip a side-eye?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Only a unfold widening and just a little bit much less liquidity.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

It would not sound so unhealthy. And perhaps the final one —

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. You realize, I imply, Glenn, I believe — look, we — nobody likes to be complacent about any such stuff. And clearly, on this surroundings, everybody’s trying very intently in all places for any dangers and making an attempt to steer on the nook. However as of proper now, we’re actually not seeing something of concern in that form of spot metrics, so to talk.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Perhaps the final quickie on credit score is simply with everyone having a job and there is wage inflation and extra money, are there any buckets, , of earnings that you just’re seeing the early stage delinquencies selecting up?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

In brief, no. You realize, it’s an fascinating query as you look throughout our buyer base, significantly in card and, , form of the closely debated query of actual earnings progress and fuel costs and what’s that doing to shopper steadiness sheets. And so, we’re watching that, particularly within the form of LMI section of our buyer base. However proper now, we’re not truly seeing something that offers us motive to fret.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

OK. Thanks for all that.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Thanks, Glenn.

Operator

The subsequent one is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Please go forward.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, Jeremy.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Hey, Gerard.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Jeremy — hello. Can we comply with up in your feedback about build up the reserves? I believe you stated it was $902 million that, , you guys constructed up, and it was on account of excessive inflation and the conflict within the Ukraine. How a lot was on account of inflation? And while you made that remark, is it since you’re involved in regards to the lower-end shopper spending extra money for gas and meals which will result in better delinquencies down the highway? And the way a lot was that because of the Ukraine scenario?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. Glenn, it is actually much more common than that. So, simply to repeat 900, construct; 300 name-specific, primarily associated to Russia-associated particular person names. The opposite 600 is portfolio stage.

And as Jamie simply stated, it merely displays rising the chance from a really low chance to a barely larger chance of a, you would possibly name it, Volcker-style, Fed-induced recession in response to the present inflationary surroundings, which, clearly, is partially pushed by commodity worth will increase, that are partially pushed by the conflict in Ukraine. So, nevertheless it’s not, , a brilliant micro portfolio stage factor, besides to the extent that our fashions, , deal with that. It is a top-down modification of the probabilistic methods.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

One of many issues I hated when CECL got here out is that we spend plenty of time at each name yapping about CECL. I simply assume it is an enormous mistake for all of us to spend an excessive amount of time on it.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Understood. After which, as a follow-up, Jeremy, if we take a look at the AOCI quantity that you just gave us, and also you have been very clear about it, , it will accrete again into the capital as these securities mature, two issues, is there something you are able to do, assuming if the lengthy finish of the curve continues to rise and possibly supplying you with perhaps a much bigger hit on AOCI as we go ahead? Is there something you are able to do to mitigate that, whether or not to shrink that, , the available-for-sale portfolio, which appears to be like prefer it was $313 billion on the finish of this era? Or do you simply must develop the income, as you identified, as one other method of rising your capital?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. I imply, I believe that, clearly, we all the time attempt to develop income form of independently of anything. I believe the big level right here is, sure, there are some issues that may be executed to mitigate this. However the huge image is that the, , central case path is one which will get us to the place we need to be once we must be there by way of CET1 and leverage.

And if issues do not play out as alongside the strains of the central case, we now have instruments and levers out there to regulate throughout a variety of dimensions, so —

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Operator

The subsequent one is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go forward.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Hello. I’ve a query for each Jeremy and Jamie. Jeremy, I suppose the SLR 5.2% near the minimal, you defined that. However since quarter finish, AOCI in all probability has gotten worse.

And I am guessing your SLR may be very even near that minimal. So, I perceive your central case, it is effective. Your outlook is sweet. However at what level do you say you cease buybacks? Or do you assume you may purchase again perhaps half of the $30 billion authorization? Or does JPMorgan even placed on asset caps, given simply the wonderful asset progress over the past three months? So, that is my query for Jeremy.

However the greater image is for you, Jamie, your CEO letter. The takeaway was within the eye of the beholder. Like, Jamie was actually nervous a couple of recession this yr, now he isn’t. So, the primary query definitely ties into the second.

So, Jeremy, plan for buybacks, stopping at asset cap. After which, Jamie, your view of the broader economies and that feeds into your expectations for capital progress. Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

OK, Mike. So, let me take this capital one. So first, let’s not discuss asset caps. That is simply not a significant factor.

I believe that is a distraction, and the terminology is unhelpful. Then, by way of the leverage ratio, simply keep in mind that the denominator of that quantity is so huge that it truly takes like fairly huge strikes to maneuver the ratio. So, 5.20 is definitely nonetheless fairly far-off from 5%. And, in fact, there are comparatively easy-to-use instruments to deal with that in addition to was alluded to earlier.

As well as, I do assume it is value simply reminding everybody of how the ERI restrictions work now relative to how they have been firstly of the disaster. Simply briefly, simply to keep in mind that primarily based on the redefinition, should you drop into the regulatory buffer zone, you are topic to a 60% restriction, which, primarily based on our current historic web earnings technology, nonetheless offers us like ample, ample capability to pay the dividend and so forth. So, , it is clearly not a part of the plan, nevertheless it’s simply value remembering that the cliff results that we had in there firstly of the pandemic are now not there. After which, by way of buybacks, only a reminder that the $30 billion authorization is a, , nontime-bounded SEC requirement.

It isn’t the previous CCAR customary. So, it is only a sign that we need to have that capability and that flexibility. However it would not actually say that a lot about how a lot we’re truly planning on doing within the close to time period.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Are you allowed to say what you are planning on doing within the close to time period? Like, simply in — like, should you’re form of like half the extent final yr, do you assume you’ll be able to maintain that? Or does this decelerate? Otherwise you’re not giving steering?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. So, let’s discuss buybacks for a second. So, within the form of post-SCB world, we have not been guiding loads on the tempo of buybacks, primarily as a result of, as , they’re on the backside of our capital stack. So, we’re targeted on investing within the enterprise, offering capital to assist rising RWA, acquisitions once they make sense, and so on.

And buybacks are an output. As we now have mentioned, within the present surroundings, the speed of buybacks is clearly going to be lower than it was within the 2021 interval on account of the interplay of all these results. And that is a great factor. It implies that we now have higher makes use of for the capital.

And if issues evolve by some means, then the speed of buybacks will likely be an output. However it’s one of many instruments within the toolkit.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

OK.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Mike, I might simply add, , should you take a look at liquidity and capital, it is extraordinary. And we do not need to have buffers on high of buffers. So, we will handle this beautiful tightly over time. And clearly, we now have AOCI and earnings and CECL, all that, however being acutely aware of all of that, we will handle by that.

And we have executed some acquisitions this yr. And so — and plus, we’re including — we’re planning to have extra capital for the rise in G-SIFI down the highway, which decreased inventory buyback and — however the quantity — I take a look at the quantity of liquidity, the earnings, the capital, that is the stuff that basically issues. And on the finish of the day, it is driving prospects. You realize, we serve prospects, which is why we’re right here.

We do not serve managing SLR. That is form of an output of stuff we do. And so — after which, your query about — I believe it was about recession mainly. Yeah, do you need to repeat the query, Mike?

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Yeah. No, I imply, should you learn your CEO letter, and that is nice. You are the chief fear officer. You are the chief threat supervisor.

You are citing all of the issues that, , maintain you up at night time, which is nice. However you’ll be able to learn it a method and say, “Hey, Jamie and JPMorgan thinks there’s going to be a recession this yr.” And you may learn it in different method, saying, “Hey, issues are effective, however these are some tail dangers.”

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

OK.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

So, do you assume — and I am going to repeat what Glenn stated. Your view is healthier than mine, and I am not going to simply accept anything. You may have lots of people, plenty of assets. Do you assume the U.S.

goes to have a recession this yr primarily based on all the things ?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Yeah, I do not. However I simply need to query this. To start with, I can not forecast the longer term any greater than anybody else. And, , the Fed forecasted and everybody forecasted, and everybody’s incorrect on a regular basis.

And I believe it is a mistake. We run the corporate to serve shoppers by thick or skinny. That is what we do. We all know there will likely be ups.

We all know there will likely be down. We all know the climate goes to alter and all that stuff like that. What I’ve identified in my letter may be very robust underlying progress, proper now, which is able to go on. It isn’t stoppable.

The buyer has cash. They pay down bank card debt. Confidence is not excessive. However the truth that they’ve cash, they’re spending their cash.

They’ve $2 trillion nonetheless of their financial savings and checking accounts. Companies are in good condition. Dwelling costs are up. Credit score is awfully good.

So, you will have this — that is one issue. That is going to proceed within the second quarter, third quarter. And I — after that, it is arduous to foretell. You’ve got received two different very giant countervailing components, which you guys are all fully conscious of.

One is inflation/QE-QT. You’ve got by no means seen that earlier than. I am merely declaring that we have — these are storm clouds on the horizon which will disappear, they might not. That is a reality.

And I am fairly acutely aware of that reality, and I do count on that alone will create volatility and considerations and infinite printing and infinite headlines and stuff like that. And the second is conflict in Ukraine. I identified in my letter that, , conflict in Ukraine. Often, wars do not essentially have an effect on the worldwide financial system within the brief run.

However there are exceptions to that. This may increasingly very nicely be certainly one of them. I do not — I am not taking a look at this on a static foundation, OK? So that you’re taking a look at this conflict in Ukraine and, , sanctions there. Issues are unpredictable.

Wars are unpredictable. Wars have unpredictable end result. You’ve got already seen in oil markets. The oil markets are precarious, OK? So, I pointed that out time and again that, , folks do not perceive that these issues can change dramatically for both bodily causes, cyber causes, or simply, , provide demand.

And so, that is one other enormous cloud within the horizon, and I — we’re ready for it. We perceive it. We’re simply — I can not let you know the result of it. I hope these issues all disappear and go away.

We’ve a mushy touchdown and the conflict is resolved, OK? I simply would not guess on all that. I simply, — and, in fact, being a threat supervisor, we will get by all that. We’ll serve our shoppers, and we will achieve share. We’ll come to that incomes super returns on capital like we now have up to now.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

All proper. Thanks.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

You are welcome.

Operator

Subsequent one is from Matthew O’Connor from Deutsche Financial institution. Please go forward.

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

I hoped you guys might touch upon the — there are some articles on the nickel publicity and the way the losses might have been important if the trades hadn’t been canceled and from the actions that have been taken. After which, simply as a follow-up, you guys have talked about form of taking a look at that enterprise and reevaluating how you concentrate on a few of the outsized dangers, and perhaps you’ll be able to replace us on that course of.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

We have already informed you. We’re serving to our shoppers get by this. We had just a little little bit of loss this quarter, we will handle by it. We’ll do postmortems on each what we predict we did incorrect and what the LME might do in a different way later.

We’re not going to do it now.

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

After which, I suppose, I imply, extra broadly talking, , given what we simply noticed the place it was in all probability a a number of customary deviation occasion and form of, as you talked about, markets would possibly do extra of those uncommon issues, like, does it make you step again and take a look at different portfolios, different companies and attempt to cut back the following —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

In my life, I’ve seen so many 10 customary deviation occasions to be shocked.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah, precisely. Yeah.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

So, clearly, we’re conscious of that on a regular basis in all the things we do.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. And I might take it one step additional. I believe the entire paradigm of claiming it is a 10 customary deviation occasion is naive, proper? We all know the returns will not be usually distributed.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Proper.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

We all know that. Regulators know that. The capital framework acknowledges that in a broad number of methods, together with issues like stress. So, I do not assume — in fact, you’ll be able to’t predict the place and by which asset class and by which specific second you are going to see these kinds of fats tail occasions.

However the framework acknowledges in a variety of ways in which that is the case. And that is how we handle threat, and that is how we capitalize.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

So, we do CCAR yearly, as you guys see. However, , we truly run 100 totally different varied stress exams each week with excessive actions and issues. You realize, and that is what we do. And, , we’re all the time — you are all the time going to be just a little shocked someplace, however we’re fairly acutely aware of these dangers.

And all occasions like this, we all the time take a look at — nevertheless it would not must occur to us. It will possibly occur to another person. We nonetheless analyze all the things that, , perhaps we have been on the incorrect aspect of one thing, too. However on the finish of the day, in all of our companies, we’re right here to serve shoppers on a regular basis.

Meaning taking rational, considerate, disciplined threat to do this.

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

After which, simply individually, you had talked about earlier that you just weren’t seeking to deploy giant quantities of your liquidity. And I suppose, the query is, , you would possibly get the speed profit simply from Fed funds going up, however is there a possibility to speed up that profit simply by shifting some money into shorter-term treasuries?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Sure.

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

We have clearly had an enormous transfer in —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Guys, we’re simply speaking about rates of interest going up perhaps greater than 3%. Convexity goes up. AOCI goes up. All these — there are all these varied causes not to do this.

We’re not going to do it simply to provide you just a little bit extra NII subsequent quarter.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. And, Steve, to simply go one stage deeper there for a second, proper? So, you talked about deployment. After all, as Jamie says, we’re all the time going to take relative worth alternatives within the portfolio. You realize, mortgage spreads have widened.

There’s fascinating stuff to do. So, in that sense, yeah, deployment out of money into varied kinds of unfold product that appears extra fascinating. We try this on a regular basis. The high-level easy query of shopping for length, , as Jamie says, steadiness sheets prolonged just a little bit.

That was by no means — we have been by no means planning to do this a lot of that anyway. And, , frankly, given the timing and anticipated pace of the speed hikes, more and more, it simply form of would not matter that a lot. And yeah, so I believe it is useful to maintain that in thoughts.

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Operator

The subsequent query is coming from Jim Mitchell from Seaport International Securities. Please go forward.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

Hey, good morning. Perhaps you could possibly simply discuss the way you’re enthusiastic about the trajectory of mortgage progress from right here, the place you are seeing the most important pockets of power. And particularly in playing cards, is the numerous year-over-year progress pushed extra by slowing paydowns? Or is that rising demand or a mixture of each? Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Sure, certain. So, you may bear in mind within the fourth quarter that we talked in regards to the outlook primarily based on form of excessive single-digit mortgage progress for the yr. And, , this quarter, we have roughly seen that. Apparently, it is just a little bit extra pushed by wholesale this quarter, which form of brings us to your query of card.

So, general card mortgage progress is fairly sturdy while you modify for seasonality and so forth. And that is actually primarily pushed by spend, which, as , may be very sturdy. The query within that’s then what is going on on with revolve. And I believe our core revolve thesis of getting again to the pre-pandemic ranges of revolving balances by the tip of the yr continues to be in place to a great approximation.

On the margin, we in all probability noticed the like takeoff second delayed by six weeks or so due to omicron. However a few of that is reaccelerating now. We see that in a few of the March numbers. So, we’ll see the way it goes.

But in addition, only a reminder that, , there is a very, very shut linkage between what we see in revolve and what we see in charge-offs. And so, within the moments the place revolve is lagging doubtlessly, definitely, that was true all through the pandemic interval relative to what we thought. We additionally noticed exceptionally decrease charge-offs. So, on a bottom-line foundation, the run fee efficiency, there’s important offset there.

However the core thesis continues to be there. Spend is strong. We’re seeing spend down and a few of the money buffers within the buyer section that tends to revolve. So, roughly, as anticipated, I might say.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

OK. After which, perhaps simply on — skipping over to buying and selling. Clearly, a stronger quarter, will need to have completed off strongly in March. So, any affirmation of that? And the way will we — , should you’re anticipating extra volatility round Fed in QT, is it — ought to we be pondering that this may very well be a greater than normalization yr? How are you enthusiastic about buying and selling, I suppose, going ahead?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah. I imply, that we will be reluctant to love predict the following three quarters of buying and selling efficiency. However —

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

Yeah, I might strive.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah, clearly, yeah. However simply to your level about normalization, proper? We have been saying that, in fact, we count on some normalization. The query is, should you outline normalization as a return to form of like 2019-type buying and selling run-rate ranges, we by no means anticipated that as a result of there’s been a bunch of natural progress within the background, some share positive factors. And we had stated that as we emerge from the pandemic and financial coverage normalized, that was going so as to add volatility to the markets.

And that, , optimistically and good threat administration, that might net-net assist just a little bit to mitigate what we would in any other case count on by way of the drop from the very elevated ranges that we noticed in the course of the pandemic. So, clearly, there are some specific issues that performed out this quarter. However a kind of was extra unstable fee market, and that helps just a little bit. So, yeah, all else equal, the far more dynamic surroundings proper now would mute the normalization you’d see in any other case.

However our core case continues to be that the pandemic-year interval market’s efficiency will not be repeatable.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

And I am going to simply add to that. I can not foresee any state of affairs in any respect the place you are not going to have plenty of volatility in markets going ahead. We have already spoken in regards to the monumental power of the financial system, QT, inflation, conflict, commodity costs. There’s nearly no probability you’d have unstable markets.

That may very well be good or unhealthy for buying and selling.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

OK.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

However [Inaudible] probability it will not occur. And I believe folks must be ready for that.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

All proper. I admire the colour.

Operator

The subsequent one is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch. Please go forward.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Good morning. I suppose only one extra query on the macro outlook. I suppose we will debate whether or not or not we get right into a recession over the following yr. However, Jamie, would love to listen to your ideas round as we take into consideration simply the medium time period, do you see a greater capex cycle for the U.S.

financial system? We have heard loads about reshoring, labor productiveness, how corporations are coping with it. Simply given the lens you will have by way of giant company and middle-market prospects, do you see some pent-up demand for capex spending that is going to be an enormous driver of progress, perhaps not for the following six months, however as we take into consideration the medium time period subsequent few years?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Sure, basically as a result of as persons are spending cash and you must produce extra items and all that, sure, and customarily see capex going up. And I forgot the precise quantity. You are higher off taking a look at our nice economist forecast for that than asking me. And we see within the borrowing just a little little bit of —

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Yeah, we do see a fairly good mortgage progress within the industrial financial institution. I imply, there is a bunch of various components there. It may very well be some stock results and so forth, however, , we’ll see. However, yeah.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

And simply on that entrance, like, have you ever seen any enchancment in provide chains? And the way huge a setback was the Russia conflict to produce chain enhancements?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

It is very arduous to inform. There was some enchancment after which there was Ukraine. And now, it is all combined once more. So, it is arduous to inform.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Bought it. And only one follow-up round you launched the U.Okay. digital financial institution final month. Any early wins by way of how that is taking part in out? Any perspective on what the markers are as we take into consideration how that technique performs out? I am certain you are going to discuss that at investor day, however simply questioning any early ideas.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

We’ll depart that to investor day.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

And the following query is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS. Please go forward.

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Hello. Good morning. My questions have been requested and answered. I am going to see you guys at investor day.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

All proper. Thanks, Erika.

Operator

And there are not any additional questions within the queue.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Effectively, thanks very a lot.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Thanks very a lot.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

See you, I suppose, at investor day.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

Could twenty third.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

OK. Goodbye.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Period: 52 minutes

Name individuals:

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Monetary Officer

John McDonald — Autonomous Analysis — Analyst

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Government Officer

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Analysis — Analyst

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Matt OConnor — Deutsche Financial institution — Analyst

Jim Mitchell — Seaport International Securities — Analyst

Ebrahim Poonawala — Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

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