Key Findings
- An replace to the EU’s Excise TaxAn excise tax is a tax imposed on a particular good or exercise. Excise taxes are generally levied on cigarettes, alcoholic drinks, soda, gasoline, insurance coverage premiums, amusement actions, and betting, and sometimes make up a comparatively small and risky portion of state and native and, to a lesser extent, federal tax collections.
Directive that embraces hurt discount rules would save lives and supply a gradual stream of income to help public well being expenditures. - Taxing tobacco merchandise in keeping with the dangers they pose to customers encourages people who smoke to modify to much less dangerous merchandise.
- One EU nation, Sweden, has embraced different tobacco merchandise, which has pushed the nation’s smoking fee to the bottom degree within the EU.
- The European Council and different Member States may study from Sweden’s success and embrace hurt discount to cut back smoking charges throughout the EU.
- The EU performs an influential position in worldwide tobacco taxation and will set an instance for the remainder of the world to successfully promote public well being.
The EU Tobacco Excise TaxA tax is a compulsory fee or cost collected by native, state, and nationwide governments from people or companies to cowl the prices of common authorities companies, items, and actions.
Directive and Present Tax Insurance policies
The European Union’s Tobacco Excise Tax Directive (TED) considerably impacts public well being throughout the European Union (EU) by offering a typical framework for Member States’ tobacco tax coverage.[1]
After greater than a decade with out modifications to the TED, the EU is anticipated to launch an up to date TED in 2025. A principled replace to the TED, embracing hurt discount by means of new classes and fee differentials for much less dangerous merchandise, will save lives and supply a gradual stream of income for public well being expenditures; poor decisions in TED coverage updates will end in extra deaths, risky income, and encourage the expansion of illicit markets.
At present, the TED requires a minimal excise obligation on cigarettes and different tobacco merchandise. The TED mandates each a particular advert quantum excise tax (a hard and fast euro quantity per pack) and an advert valorem tax (a further share of the typical retail promoting worth) on cigarettes.
The present minimal tax charges are €1.80 tax per pack of 20 cigarettes and a minimal obligation of 60 % of the nation’s weighted common retail worth. The minimal obligation just isn’t required to be 60 % in international locations that levy a better excise tax of at the least €2.30 per pack. The TED gives minimal charges, however all international locations levy taxes that exceed these charges.[2]
The excise taxes are each levied earlier than including the broader value-added taxes (VAT) in every nation. These myriad taxes stack as much as a big burden on customers—totaling greater than 80 % of the retail promoting worth on common in 2024, which means the mixed taxes increasedharmoni shopper costs of cigarettes by greater than 450 % within the EU on common.
Desk 1. Common EU Cigarette Taxes on a Pack of 20 Cigarettes as of January 2025
Supply: European Fee Taxation and Customs Union; authors’ calculations.
Whereas the TED establishes a minimal tax fee, the harmonization efforts don’t lengthen to any fee most. The result’s a variety of tax charges throughout the bloc, as a number of Member States levy taxes considerably greater than the minimal fee.
The excise tax burden ranges from a low of €2.02 per pack of 20 cigarettes in Bulgaria to a excessive of €10.71 in Eire. With the addition of VAT, this turns into a low of €2.54 in Bulgaria to a excessive of €13.72 in Eire. When it comes to the relative tax burden, Germany has the bottom with complete taxes comprising 69.1 % of the nation’s weighted common worth, whereas the Netherlands has the very best with complete taxes comprising 110 % of the nation’s weighted common worth. Weighted common worth is decided from earlier years, pursuant to Article 8 (Subsection 2) of the Tobacco Tax Directive, enabling tax shares exceeding one hundred pc from the beforehand decrease costs. Taxes as a share of present 12 months costs are all the time lower than one hundred pc.
The EU’s TED additionally establishes minimal tax charges on different tobacco merchandise. These merchandise embody fine-cut smoking tobacco, cigars and cigarillos, and different smoking tobacco.
Desk 2. Minimal EU Tax Fee on Different Tobacco Merchandise
Supply: European Union Tobacco Excise Directive.
Notably, the opposite tobacco merchandise (OTP) lined by the TED are restricted to flamable tobacco, which leaves out most revolutionary different tobacco merchandise (ATPs).
The TED has three broad targets for the Fee: guaranteeing the “correct functioning of the interior market” by way of harmonization throughout Member States, guaranteeing a “excessive degree of well being safety,” and producing tax revenues.
“Correct functioning” of the EU’s inner market refers usually to avoiding distortions to competitors between Member States to additional the upkeep of an financial union. Establishing a minimal tax fee prevents anybody Member State from undercutting the remainder, which could additionally undermine well being safety efforts. Harmonization can also be used to assist cut back the prevalence of smuggling and illicit markets.
Taxes enhance the value customers should pay for tobacco, thereby incentivizing people who smoke to buy fewer (authorized) merchandise. Traditionally, people who smoke have usually been proof against decreases in consumption in response to tax-induced worth will increase, which means massive taxes could be essential to meaningfully lower consumption.[3] This impact was pushed, partly, by a scarcity of substitutes for nicotine consumption. Nonetheless, with reasonably priced different nicotine sources now out there, people who smoke have demonstrated a willingness to maneuver away from flamable cigarettes to ATPs.
Cigarette consumption is related to harms to customers and a few bystanders, so a discount in cigarette consumption would enhance public well being. Improved public well being targets may very well be achieved by means of means aside from taxation, after all, however income technology can also be a purpose of the TED. The directive implicitly locations competitors within the inner market and well being safety in greater precedence than revenues.
The European Fee makes use of the TED to set minimal charges throughout the EU to additional these three broad targets, however Member States retain a big diploma of their sovereign rights to behave inside this framework. Most charges usually are not codified, leaving fee willpower primarily as much as every Member State offered they abide by the tax fee ground. As long as inner market competitors, well being safety, and income technology usually are not unduly burdened by a Member State, the TED doesn’t justify intervention into home insurance policies.
The forthcoming replace of the TED could create new classes to incorporate the ever extra fashionable smoking options like heat-not-burn tobacco, oral nicotine pouches, and vaping and different digital nicotine supply methods (ENDS).[4] The present directive already acknowledges variations between sorts of manufactured tobacco that necessitate totally different tax therapies between them, so this understanding may simply be expanded to embody ATPs.
Tax Insurance policies Carry Commerce-offs: The Economics of Taxing Tobacco
Tax coverage carries trade-offs and tobacco taxes are not any totally different. Whereas tobacco taxes lower authorized gross sales, the larger the tax, the larger the inducement for participation in illicit and black markets. Harmonization, well being safety, and income technology are all undermined by the prevalence of smuggling, fraud, and illicit markets of tobacco merchandise like cigarettes.
From a public finance perspective, cigarette taxes are additionally regressive and supply a risky income stream hooked up to a shrinking tax baseThe tax base is the whole quantity of earnings, property, belongings, consumption, transactions, or different financial exercise topic to taxation by a tax authority. A slender tax base is non-neutral and inefficient. A broad tax base reduces tax administration prices and permits extra income to be raised at decrease charges.
. These points ought to elevate issues over additional will increase to the prevailing tax charges.
Cigarettes make a perfect product for illicit markets.[5] They’re light-weight, simple to move, authorized to eat, and merchandise could be bought for a fraction of the authorized worth merely by means of tax evasion. KPMG estimates that 35.2 billion counterfeit and contraband cigarettes have been consumed throughout EU Member States in 2023.[6] This quantities to eight.3 % of all cigarettes consumed in these international locations. These counterfeit and contraband cigarettes, if bought legally, would have generated at the least €11.6 billion in extra tax income.
Punitive taxation and enforcement alone will probably not be sufficient to adequately handle the issue, not to mention remove it. Whereas enforcement performs an necessary position in combating illicit markets, designing a tax and regulatory regime that encourages collaborating in authorized (and taxed) transactions is an much more necessary issue.
Equally, draconian regulatory schemes and extreme taxation charges threaten to grant market share to a bootleg marketplace for ATPs simply as they do for cigarettes. All through Europe, a thriving illicit market already exists for vaping methods, typically smuggled from China and Russia. Germany and Spain seized tons of of hundreds of unlawful e-cigarettes in 2024.[7]
Illicit market points overlap with tax fairness issues. Tobacco taxes disproportionately have an effect on low-income customers as a result of cigarette taxes are regressive.[8] All excise taxes are typically regressive to some extent, however cigarette taxes are probably the most regressive of the widespread excise taxes largely because of the elevated prevalence of smoking amongst individuals with decrease incomes.[9]
From a public finance standpoint, excise taxes have significantly slender tax bases, which contribute to their revenues tending to be significantly risky.[10] This makes them uniquely ill-suited to furnish common funds because the revenues are inherently unreliable.
This impact is exacerbated for cigarette taxes by the decades-long development of declining cigarette consumption. The prevalence of smoking has decreased steadily throughout most EU international locations since at the least 2006.[11] The tax base of cigarette taxes is ever shrinking, which implies that even when income will increase briefly in response to a fee hike, the long-run development will steadily lower as fewer Europeans smoke.
Tobacco tax coverage is sophisticated as a result of flamable tobacco merchandise are removed from the one choice to eat nicotine; innovation and improvement of ATPs have massively modified a market traditionally dominated by conventional cigarettes.
Hurt Discount and Different Tobacco Merchandise
ATPs are merchandise that allow the consumption of nicotine with out probably the most dangerous facet of smoking: the inhalation of burning toxins. Nicotine is an addictive chemical present in tobacco merchandise, however nicotine itself isn’t a carcinogen. Analysis exhibits that nicotine alone doesn’t trigger lung most cancers, stroke, or continual obstructive pulmonary illness (COPD) which might be generally related to smoking.[12] Fairly, the opposite poisonous chemical compounds and combustion in cigarettes and tobacco are what trigger most cancers. Avoiding these different chemical compounds drastically reduces the harms skilled by each customers and bystanders by way of secondhand contact. The discount in hurt thus additionally reduces the mandatory health-care prices of treating these harms.
ATPs are available in many varieties, every with their very own related danger profile, nicotine supply medium, and shopper worth profile. A number of the hottest ATPs are heat-not-burn (HNB) or heated tobacco merchandise (HTP), oral merchandise reminiscent of snus and tobacco-free nicotine pouches, and ENDS or vaping merchandise.
HNB merchandise don’t combust the tobacco however merely warmth it, facilitating the consumption of the nicotine within the tobacco with fewer dangerous chemical compounds than flamable tobacco merchandise. There are additionally tobacco-free nicotine items out there to be used in HNB merchandise. Vaping merchandise, or e-cigarettes or ENDS, aerosolize nicotine e-liquid with electronics, eradicating tobacco from the method and thus avoiding related harms. Snuff and snus are lower or powdered tobacco merchandise which might be sniffed by way of the nostrils or positioned within the mouth, once more enabling nicotine consumption whereas avoiding extra dangerous combustion. Nicotine pouches or fashionable oral nicotine are small pouches containing nicotine to be positioned within the mouth and absorbed with out the hurt related to chemical inhalation.
Every poses a various diploma of well being danger, however these well being dangers are all significantly lower than smoking. These noncombustible tobacco merchandise and tobacco-free nicotine merchandise are additionally significantly much less dangerous to customers and bystanders than flamable cigarettes. Designing a taxation and regulatory scheme to embrace their potential for hurt discount by way of people who smoke switching to much less dangerous options could save thousands and thousands of lives.
The provision of much less dangerous choices for nicotine consumption accelerated the decades-long development of declining smoking prevalence. A big share of customers switched to much less dangerous strategies of nicotine consumption. This switching to a much less dangerous type of nicotine consumption is the muse for the precept of hurt discount, a key facet of sound tobacco and nicotine tax and regulatory design.
Hurt discount acknowledges the feasibility of decreasing damaging outcomes related to sure items moderately than trying to remove the hurt completely by means of punitive taxation or outright bans. Embracing the potential for much less hurt is considerably more practical than the insistence on nicotine abstinence that has historically dominated cigarette cessation efforts in public well being and regulation. Substituting ATPs for cigarettes has broadly been discovered to be a useful gizmo for smoking cessation.[13]
Smoking cessation is notoriously difficult.[14] Embracing substitution for a much less dangerous nicotine consumption technique is one attainable useful resource for people who smoke desirous to give up. Nicotine substitute therapies like patches and lozenges are longstanding assets for cessation, and ATPs can be utilized in comparable methods. Hurt discount by means of substitution is probably going more practical at encouraging smoking cessation than punishment by means of taxation, as are direct financial incentives.[15]
Some international locations outdoors of the EU have already built-in hurt discount, to some extent, into their tobacco management regimes. The US Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) acknowledges much less dangerous merchandise as modified danger tobacco merchandise that obtain a decrease tax fee commensurate with their decrease danger profiles.[16] The FDA started these classifications with Swedish-style snus merchandise—fashionable in Sweden however outright prohibited virtually all over the place else within the EU.
The UK’s Royal School of Physicians has concluded that the long-term well being dangers from vaping is “unlikely to exceed 5% of the hurt from smoking tobacco” and emphasizes that “hurt discount has big potential to forestall dying and incapacity from tobacco use, and to hasten our progress to a tobacco-free society.”[17] Public Well being England agrees that e-cigarettes are roughly 95 % much less dangerous than smoking cigarettes.[18]
Within the EU, nonetheless, the TED fails to acknowledge many ATPs and thus precludes a lot hurt discount. In lots of Member States, ATPs like e-liquids face tax insurance policies that run counter to tobacco hurt discount. The silence of the present TED on ATPs like vapor has led to disparate therapy throughout Member States, distorting the EU’s inner market and creating unequal grounds.[19]
Some ATPs, like some oral tobacco, and flavored tobacco merchandise are largely prohibited by the Tobacco Merchandise Directive, a separate regulatory scheme governing tobacco merchandise and their substances. Sweden was granted a derogation from this prohibition on oral tobacco, which the nation insisted upon as a situation for becoming a member of the EU.[20]
An replace to the TED can and will shift this regime towards embracing hurt discount, enabling ATPs to help with smoking cessation, selling public well being, and driving customers in direction of safer authorized markets. This could imply guaranteeing that ATPs are accessible, acceptable, and reasonably priced for customers.
It’s probably {that a} tax regime that optimizes hurt discount by taxing safer merchandise much less wouldn’t maximize revenues. The first focus of those taxes shouldn’t be income technology, however public well being outcomes. Excessively taxing fashionable substitutions for smoking may yield further revenues within the brief time period, however would achieve this at the price of many preventable deaths from people who smoke discouraged from switching to much less dangerous options in the long run. A extra pragmatic tax coverage that integrates hurt discount may present a greater stability between public well being and income technology.
The very best practices for sound tax therapy of ATPs contain easy, direct advert quantum taxes. This implies taxing by stick, by weight, or by milliliter of vape fluid relying on the product sort. This most successfully targets the harm-causing aspect of the nice and retains the taxes as impartial as attainable. Tax charges on ATPs ought to yield a worth differential between flamable tobacco merchandise and fewer dangerous options, thereby encouraging people who smoke to modify. This fee could be levied as a discount to the speed utilized to cigarettes, commensurate with a particular product’s understood place on the chance continuum.
The danger continuum quantifies the relative total danger of a product—accounting for the direct hurt that the product causes to customers and bystanders, the benefit of substitution for flamable cigarettes, the benefit of consumption of mass portions, and the addictiveness of a product.
Utilizing this framework, a spectrum of 4 classes of reduced-harm merchandise could be delineated.
Desk 3. Different Tobacco Product Tax Charges to Optimize Hurt Discount
Supply: Tax Basis, “How Ought to Different Tobacco Merchandise Be Taxed?”
This categorical method establishes a comparatively simple means for Member States to embrace hurt discount insurance policies to advertise smoking cessation and extra successfully promote public well being. Assigning merchandise to classes primarily based on their danger ensures that safer merchandise will endure a decrease tax fee, establishing worth differentials that encourage customers to decide on much less dangerous options to smoking.
Making a greater diversity of much less dangerous merchandise out there to people who smoke saves lives, shrinks illicit markets, and permits governments to steadily transition from the shrinking tax base that’s flamable cigarettes.
Insurance policies in Observe
The exclusion of most ATPs from the present TED has created a fragmented market that, along with the issues of compliance and worldwide enterprise distortions, has additionally created a sequence of case research on totally different coverage outcomes.
One nation has far outperformed its EU friends in decreasing smoking prevalence and avoiding preventable deaths from tobacco use: Sweden. Apart from Sweden, no EU Member State has but to cut back their smoking fee under 10 %. Research present that, for many international locations, progress on decreasing smoking prevalence has stagnated or reversed since 2020.[21]
In 2024, Sweden turned the primary nation to formally be “smoke-free,” outlined on this context as having a smoking prevalence of lower than 5 %.[22] Solely 4.5 % of Swedish-born adults, or 5.3 % of all adults together with immigrants, smoked. The Swedes have been pioneers within the area of ATPs with the early improvement of snus. They’ve since been pioneers in tobacco management coverage by leveraging this and different improvements to embrace hurt discount and enhance their nation’s public well being.
Dr. Anders Milton, doctor and former president of the Swedish Medical Affiliation, credit the success to the nation’s “pragmatic concentrate on hurt discount moderately than prohibition. A variety of safer nicotine merchandise, with a wide range of strengths and flavours [sic], is legally out there each on-line and in shops, supported by promoting, which raises consciousness and encourages uptake.”
Concurrent with the nation’s constantly low smoking prevalence, Sweden constantly has among the many lowest per capita most cancers charges and tobacco-related deaths within the EU.[23]
Embracing ATPs and their hurt discount capability is clearly closely contributory to Sweden’s uniquely low smoking fee.[24] A research of tobacco use in Sweden over 36 years confirmed a steady decline in smoking charges coupled with a considerable rise in snus prevalence.[25] Snus performs a transparent position in Sweden’s uniquely low per capita tobacco mortality charges.[26]
Based on Swedish Minister of Finance Mikael Damberg, taxes on tobacco and nicotine merchandise “are already structured in such a means that merchandise are usually taxed on the premise of hazard.”[27] In consequence, a wide selection of smoking options has turn into out there and accepted in Sweden, leading to monumental strides in direction of decreasing harms from smoking and tobacco consumption.
In stark distinction to Sweden’s achievement 16 years forward of the EU’s 2040 purpose of decreasing smoking charges under 5 %, most different Member States are far behind on progress towards decreasing smoking. Research of Sweden relative to neighboring international locations present that embracing hurt discount yields about a further 0.4 % per 12 months to the speed of decline in smoking prevalence.[28] As an alternative, many EU Member States have chosen an reverse method, suppressing ATPs and undermining their hurt discount potential.[29]
Estonia, for instance, has significantly stringent restrictions on ATPs.[30] The nation levies an excise tax on e-cigarette fluid (€0.20 per mL) and has banned flavored vape merchandise since 2019. Promoting of those different merchandise is prohibited, even for nicotine substitute therapies, and ATPs expertise significantly low prevalence relative to the remainder of the EU.[31] Not coincidentally, Estonia experiences a comparatively excessive smoking fee of 25 %, which has elevated by 7 % since 2020.
Belgium’s smoking fee is barely decrease than the EU common at 21 %. Nonetheless, this has remained completely unchanged from 2020. The nation has since banned nicotine pouches and disposable vapes completely, wholly precluding any hurt discount from the much less dangerous merchandise.[32]
Eire set a goal for turning into “smoke-free” by 2025, very similar to Sweden, however the nation’s smoking fee remains to be 16 %, down solely 2 % from 2020 regardless of having the bloc’s heaviest tax on cigarettes. It will probably be exacerbated by the 2024 excise tax on vape fluid (€0.50 per mL) and the anticipated ban on disposable and flavored vapes.[33]
Apart from Sweden, solely the Czech Republic had taken vital steps to embrace hurt discount. The regulatory setting there enabled adoption of ATPs. The nation’s smoking fee decreased from 30 % to 23 % since 2020; nonetheless, this progress is more likely to sluggish at finest within the wake of latest taxes on ATPs and a taste ban on vapes in 2025.[34]
Many EU Member States have refused to study from the instance set by Sweden and endure needlessly excessive charges of smoking because of this. The brand new EU TED ought to take inspiration from Sweden’s distinctive progress and embrace sound hurt discount insurance policies that leverage the improvements from ATPs to advertise public well being.
If the current, stagnating trajectory continues unaltered, the EU will take an additional 60 years to attain its purpose—turning into “smoke-free” by the 12 months 2100. Adjustments are clearly essential to yield public well being advantages from decreasing the harms inflicted on people who smoke and the prices related to treating these harms. Simply as Sweden could be an instance for the EU, the EU may very well be an instance for the remainder of the world.
The EU’s World Function for the Way forward for Tobacco Coverage
A lot of the world appears to be like to EU coverage as a information for their very own. Because the Basic Information Safety Regulation has reworked the worldwide knowledge privateness panorama, the brand new TED may assist form world well being tendencies.[35]
Tax harmonization throughout EU Member States can decrease compliance prices for companies, however a sound tax design may do rather more. Worldwide companies that take part within the European market could shift their focus to reduced-harm merchandise. Enabling accessible and reasonably priced ATPs would undermine the market share of illicit markets, each for the ATPs themselves and for conventional cigarettes, by driving customers into safer authorized transactions.
The thriving world cigarette and tobacco product smuggling trade may very well be considerably undermined by a TED that successfully integrates revolutionary merchandise, embraces hurt discount rules, and units a shining instance for the opposite international locations of the world.
EU motion is especially necessary now, throughout a time of tense worldwide relationships. If different international locations comply with the lead of an EU that embraces hurt discount, EU insurance policies wouldn’t solely profit Europeans, but additionally residents across the globe.
An replace to the TED that allows much less dangerous different merchandise has the potential to drastically enhance public well being in Europe and overseas. Fashionable oral nicotine, vapor merchandise, snus, and different ATPs are considerably much less dangerous than conventional flamable cigarettes and thus ought to bear a decreased tax burden. Taxing tobacco merchandise in proportion to their related harms would assist incentivize customers to modify to much less dangerous consumption strategies.
Embracing easy, science-based hurt discount rules would help the EU in reaching its targets of decreasing smoking charges, avoiding thousands and thousands of preventable deaths, and setting an instance that the remainder of the world may comply with to do the identical for themselves.
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References
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[20] European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, “Council Directive 2014/40/EU,” Apr. 3, 2014, https://well being.ec.europa.eu/doc/obtain/c4aa6f75-7e52-463b-badb-cbb6181b87c3_en?filename=dir_201440_en.pdf.
[21] Delon Human, Anders Milton, and Heino Stover, “Lacking the Goal,” Smoke Free Sweden, November 2024, https://smokefreesweden.org/wp-content/themes/smokefreesweden/belongings/pdf/knowledge/SFS_Missingpercent20thepercent20target_1percent20Novpercent202024.pdf.
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[23] Camille Bello, “Smoking in Europe: Which international locations are probably the most and least hooked on tobacco and vaping?” Euronews, Aug. 14, 2023, https://www.euronews.com/well being/2023/08/14/smoking-in-europe-which-countries-are-the-most-and-least-addicted-to-tobacco-and-vaping; Delon Human, Anders Milton, and Karl Fagerstrom, “The Swedish Expertise: A Roadmap to a Smoke Free Society,” Smoke Free Sweden, 2023, https://smokefreesweden.org/wp-content/themes/smokefreesweden/belongings/pdf/studies/Reportpercent20Thepercent20Swedishpercent20Experiencepercent20EN.pdf; and The Snus Fee, “Snus saves lives: A research of snus and tobacco-related mortality within the EU,” June 2017, https://snusforumet.se/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Snuskommissionen_rapport3_eng_PRINT.pdf
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