US headline PPI declined -0.5% in July and the core fee was up 0.2%, once more lacking on the draw back, after respective features of 1.0% (was 1.1%) and 0.4% in June. That is the first month-to-month drop since April 2020 and is off of the all-time excessive of 1.7% from March (information goes again to 2009). Many of the main elements besides meals cooled final month. Within the meantime, preliminary jobless claims jumped 14k to 262k within the week ended August 6, following unusually huge downward claims revisions within the final two weeks, leaving what continues to be a giant 4-month climb from the 53-year low of 166k in March. The 4-month uptrend in preliminary claims and the 10-week uptrend for persevering with claims recommend draw back threat for our 230k August nonfarm payroll estimate, and far higher draw back threat into This fall.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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