A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldier stands guard in front of the National Museum of China in Beijing on March 3, 2025, ahead of the country’s annual legislative meetings known as the “Two Sessions.”
Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s top policymakers are due to release growth targets and stimulus plans for the year at an annual parliamentary meeting that kicks off Wednesday.
The gathering, dubbed the “Two Sessions,” consists of a consultative congress that will start later in the day, and a National People’s Congress due to open Thursday. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to announce a series of economic targets at the NPC, which had largely been decided at a December meeting.
During the upcoming parliamentary meeting this year, policymakers are also expected to release details of a new five-year development plan, the 15th such program in China’s modern history. Investors will look for clues on how Beijing intends to achieve its domestic tech ambitions.
The goals will mark the penultimate step towards China’s 2035 goals with a focus on achieving technological self-sufficiency.
Senior Chinese leaders including top diplomat Wang Yi and heads of economic and financial ministries typically speak to the press during the Two Sessions. The gathering usually lasts around a week and is expected to conclude on March 11 this year.
Asia Society analysts noted that China’s anti-corruption campaign has reduced the number of delegates participating in the Two Sessions this year.
Here’s what economists are expecting Premier Li to announce Thursday:
GDP growth of around 4.5% to 5%
Several Chinese local governments have already lowered their growth ambitions for 2026, signaling Beijing could follow suit with the national target.
A growth target below 5% would be the lowest on record, according to The Asia Society, and down from “around 5%” in the past three years. China didn’t set a GDP goal in 2020 due to the pandemic.
“A slightly lower target would give policymakers more room to prioritise structural reform and improve data quality,” economists at Economist Intelligence Unit said in a note last week, penciling in a 4.6% growth prediction.
However, Morgan Stanley analysts see a “low probability” that Beijing will set a smaller growth target, adding that policymakers typically set GDP ranges — rather than single-figure targets — for periods of major economic stress. The firm also pointed out that 2026 was the first year of China’s “15th five-year plan,” which requires faster growth to anchor confidence.
Inflation of around 2%
Budget deficit of 4%
Such a target would also match last year’s, which had marked a rare expansion of government spending relative to GDP.
The 4% deficit set in 2025 was the highest on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020.
Deeper challenges
China’s policy announcements will be scrutinized for details on consumer stimulus, such as expanding trade-in subsidies, and any incremental support for the struggling property market. The Two Sessions will likely shed light on Beijing’s thinking about the impact of U.S. trade tensions and the developing conflict in the Middle East.
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The world’s second-largest economy faces persistent challenges at home.
“There is a widening gap between Beijing’s targets (and data measuring economic performance) and the actual capacity of China’s policymakers to support domestic demand with the tools at their disposal,” Logan Wright, partner at U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group, said in a report Tuesday.
Wright added that China’s financial system was lending heavily to unproductive local government and state-owned enterprises to prevent them from collapsing — and that fiscal spending was largely executed by those same institutions.
“The net result is a declining payoff in terms of investment and economic activity for the same volume of lending or fiscal spending, while private sector investment remains weak,” he said.
