The combination of both metrics suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.
Current market dynamics point to a reset in motion, with Bitcoin undergoing deleveraging. However, the leading digital asset is yet to form a bottom for this bear cycle, despite cooling market conditions.
According to a report from CryptoQuant, metrics such as falling open interest and Bitcoin basis compression on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate ongoing deleveraging.
More Pain For BTC?
The CME basis compression is a futures yield curve that reflects demand for leveraged long exposure. The curve has been in a downward trend since 2025, following patterns that preceded the 2019 and 2022 bear markets. However, the slope remains positive to this day. While the curve’s current slope suggests leverage demand and risk appetite are cooling, the market has not yet reached conditions historically associated with capitulations. It confirms gradual ongoing deleveraging, but not capitulation.
The yield curve compression currently signals weaker demand for leveraged long exposure, as market participants become less willing to pay a premium for bitcoin (BTC) exposure. This points to weakening bullish conviction and a more neutral or bearish backdrop. However, longer-dated contracts are still trading at a premium to spot and short-dated futures.
In essence, the curve reflects an environment where price rallies may face resistance until a definitive cyclical bottom forms. Past cycle bottoms have formed only when the yield curve slope turned negative, signaling backwardation and acute deleveraging. This means that BTC still has more downside to come.
Cyclical Bottom Coming Soon
Additional proof that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a gradual reset in positioning rather than the acute stress needed to form a bottom is the decline in futures open interest. This metric has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak, following a trend seen during the 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant found that the CME Bitcoin futures open interest has plummeted by 47%, similar to the 45% plunge witnessed in 2022. Such a move reflects a major unwind of leveraged positions following a period of increased participation. This unwind is characterized by prolonged liquidation, reduced speculative demand, and lower hedging activity, confirming an ongoing deleveraging cycle.
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The combination of a declining open interest and a positive yield curve suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.
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