Trying Beneath The Hood of EarningsBeats.com – | Buying and selling Locations with Tom Bowley

The storm clouds rolled in throughout the month of December. That was our early warning signal that 2022 would doubtless be a really tough 12 months. If you have not been studying my articles over the previous few months, I would extremely suggest that you just no less than return and browse these three (it’s going to be price your time):

1. “It Might Be a Very Tough Begin to 2022” written December 31, 2021 in ChartWatchers
2. “The Nice Divide Presents Large Issues….and a Wild Prediction for Apple (AAPL)” written January 4, 2022 in Buying and selling Locations with Tom Bowley
3. “4 Daring Predictions About This Bear Market” written January 23, 2022 in Buying and selling Locations with Tom Bowley

I usually focus on utilizing technical evaluation to handle danger and hopefully these three articles with assist to underscore why. On January 8, 2022, at our MarketVision 2022 occasion, I stated that I believed we have been going to have a cyclical bear market in early 2022, which is just an prolonged interval of weak spot inside an in any other case sturdy secular bull market. However cyclical bear markets scare traders simply as a lot as secular bear markets, which often terrorize traders for years somewhat than just a few months. And the media could not care much less about deciphering the distinction. They only wish to scare you with headlines and get you to click on on their article. That is their solely objective. You suppose they’re attempting to teach us? Actually?

You should use technical evaluation to handle your cash in addition to the most effective professionals and we’ve numerous testimonials to show it. Listed below are 4 of my latest favorites:

• “I’ve been an on/off subscriber and following you for perhaps 3 years. I’ve to confess I’m extraordinarily impressed by your evaluation and techniques. I wrongly assumed you have been a perma bull and lengthy solely momentum dealer. To see you rapidly change gears and so precisely forecast and predict this 12 months’s bearish market is extraordinarily spectacular. I shall be renewing my subscription.”
• “I simply needed to say Due to Tom. As a result of of his steerage, my cash has been on the sidelines, out of the market, for the reason that first week of January. Tom warned us on Dec twenty eighth that the rotation to defensive sectors was taking up, and to tighten stops. He has been precisely sounding warnings of the market going decrease since then. When the PPO of QQQ crossed over with an upward bullish sign (considered one of my favorites), as an alternative of going lengthy, I stayed out of the market as a result of Tom was appropriately warning us that the promoting was in all probability not but over. Thanks, Tom. My buying and selling account has prevented main losses due to your steerage.” 
• “Your service & steerage is superior. Could not be happier with the entire layers of training offered. It’s totally thorough.”
• “I’m extra enthusiastic about Tom’s work than simply earning money.”

We obtain plenty of suggestions from our members and we encourage it. These 4, nonetheless, I needed to level out as a result of they’re all lacking one factor. Not considered one of them stated, “thanks for the ABC commerce the place I made $xxx”. I imagine EarningsBeats.com stands above all others due to our market steerage and our capability and willingness to share our information, which has been discovered over a number of a long time and many alternative market environments. I discovered from the most effective, John Murphy, who continues to publish glorious articles right here at StockCharts.com. I regularly give John quite a lot of credit score as he’s not solely an awesome trainer, however his work has been actually inspirational.

If a testimonial focuses solely on the {dollars} made on a commerce, then it stands to purpose that the worth of our service depends on our final commerce, or our previous few trades. Members who’re solely searching for a fast rating usually are not actually the varieties of members that I wish to entice. I would like members who’ve a thirst for information and wish to enhance their investing/buying and selling course of. I have been advised many occasions that my energy is educating and I completely embrace that. Investing/buying and selling is HARD. You could believe in your course of and in your information. In any other case, market makers and the media will feast upon your emotional state, whether or not or not it’s greed or worry.

One of many testimonials above stated they wrongly assumed I used to be a perma bull. Earlier than I remark additional on this, I would like you to have a look at the next Large Image chart of the S&P 500. It spans 100 years and I’ve annotated the secular bull markets (blue directional traces) and secular bear markets (red-shaded areas):

The three secular bull markets on this chart span the next years:

• 1950 by 1969
• 1981 by 2000
• 2013 by 2022 (nonetheless in play)

The full variety of years of those secular bull markets cowl roughly 50 years of the previous 90 years. We have had the next cyclical bear markets inside these secular bull markets as follows (months that they lasted in parenthesis):

• 1957 (3 months)
• 1961-1962 (7 months)
• 1966 (8 months)
• 1968-1969 (8 months)
• 1980-1982 (21 months)
• 1987 (2 months)
• 1990 (3 months)
• 1998 (3 months)
• 2018 (3 months)
• 2020 (1 month)

So throughout the 50 secular bull market years, here is the breakdown between bullish months and bearish months (cyclical bear market months):

• Bullish months: 541 months
• Cyclical bear market months: 59 months

I imagine we’re in a secular bull market. Getting again to the perma bull remark now. Do you suppose I will do higher investing throughout a secular bull market with a bullish mindset or bearish mindset given the whole months of every above? 90% of months in a secular bull market are bullish – or no less than not part of cyclical bear markets. You wish to name me a perma bull? Go forward and I will put on it like a badge of honor.

Additionally, contemplate this. I started writing in my Buying and selling Locations weblog in March 2015. We have been in a secular bull market the complete time that I have been scripting this weblog. I’ve remained almost 100% bullish throughout one of many strongest secular bull markets in our historical past. Hey, if you wish to criticize me for appropriately calling this bull marketplace for the previous 7 years, be happy.

I attempt to stay utterly goal, however I am not going to show bearish throughout a secular bull market fairly often. Why? Properly, take a look at the numbers I simply offered above. I do not know the way perma bears earn money within the inventory market. Once I’m bearish, I focus on my rationale – simply as I’ve completed for the previous 2-3 months. However this cyclical bear market will not final for much longer. After which I can revert again to being my regular perma bull self. 🙂

The present cyclical bear market is in its third month. If you happen to take a look at the historical past of cyclical bear markets above, you have to notice that the 2022 model might be nearer to its finish than its starting. Simply when the media talks about runaway inflation, a hawkish Fed, the Russia-Ukraine struggle, the upcoming recession (which is subsequent, by the best way), and no matter else they wish to discuss, I will be shopping for at or close to the underside. If I mis-time it by a month, or perhaps a few months, so be it. And if I can catch the underside simply as I did the latest high, although, effectively that will be superior!

We’re about to announce our subsequent two occasions, our March Instructional Collection. I will be writing extra about them quickly, however to be sure you do not miss it, CLICK HERE to enroll in our FREE EB Digest publication. It is utterly free with no bank card required and you could unsubscribe at any time. We ALWAYS announce our occasions to our whole EB Digest group, so it is a good way to obtain a free publication 3x per week AND even be alerted to academic occasions.

Have an awesome weekend and Glad Buying and selling!

Tom