On Feb. 1, 2021, a convoy of black military vehicles rolled through Naypyidaw to detain top NLD leaders. Suu Kyi was sentenced to 33 years (now reduced to 18) on charges ranging from corruption to illegally possessing walkie-talkies. “I have been extremely lenient toward her,” Min Aung Hlaing says with a straight face. “We made every possible effort to prevent the situation from reaching this point.”
What really drove Min Aung Hlaing to seize power dominated discussions among officials in squalid detention. “We talked about it a lot,” says Turnell, who spent 650 days in custody. “There was certainly a part of the military that didn’t want any loosening of the sort under way.”
The coup is best understood as a reaction to a regime losing control. According to a leaked 2004 military dossier, the junta engineered reforms to hedge against Beijing’s overbearing influence and leverage Suu Kyi’s freedom to win Western trade, aid, and diplomatic legitimacy. But the generals miscalculated the public’s fierce devotion to “The Lady,” whose popularity proved fundamentally incompatible with the military’s absolute power. Myanmar’s military also has sprawling business interests spanning banking, mining, gems, construction, manufacturing, tobacco, tourism, transport, telecoms, and real estate. Reforms threatened this gravy train.
