Wall Street heads into the first full week of July trading with interest rates in mind, as the summary of the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month push yields higher and throw off stocks’ groove. Stocks are on track for a winning trading week, which concludes with Thursday’s closing bell given that the market is dark on Friday in observance of Independence Day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high on Thursday and is up 1.3% for the week, while the S & P 500 has climbed 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite has climbed 1.6% despite declines in chipmakers. But more importantly, the market capped off a strong second quarter this week. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their biggest quarterly gains since 2020. What’s more, the small cap-focused Russell 2000 posted its biggest gain in the first half of a year going back to 1991. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 in 2026 The question for investors now lies on whether there’s much more upside ahead, especially as the Fed begins a new era under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank held its first meeting with Warsh at the helm in late June. The central bank held interest rates steady at the gathering despite pressure from President Donald Trump to lower rates. Warsh did not indicate where he saw interest rates going next in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen this week, though he did acknowledge that inflation was “too high.” Fed funds future price in an approximately 80% likelihood at the central bank keeps rates unchanged at its policy meeting later this month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. “There’s a new sheriff in town,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “The markets don’t know how is he going to lead … so I think that the markets are really going to look at those minutes.” The minutes could drive sharp moves in Treasury yields, with those on shorter-dated notes trending higher of late. The 2-year note yield is up roughly 34 basis points in the past three months amid concerns of rising inflation due to the U.S.-Iran war. The benchmark 10-year note has climbed nearly 18 basis points in that time. However, short-term yields fell broadly on Thursday after the release of weaker-than-expected jobs data. The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June , about half of the 115,000 consensus prediction from economists polled by Dow Jones. Stocks initially jumped Thursday, as the data gave investors hope that the Fed may hesitate to raise rates in the near term. Yet, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq failed to hold those gains as semiconductor names came under pressure. “We achieved close to an average full year gain in just six months, raising questions about just how much more fuel is left in the market this year,” said Chris Kampitsis, managing partner at the SKG Team. Despite the big run, Kampitsis said stocks still should be able to rise further due to the expectation for companies to see strong earnings and productivity gains as a result of artificial intelligence. The average strategist on Wall Street forecasts the S & P 500 will finish 2026 at 7,807, around 4% higher than where the broad index ended the second quarter. While still in between corporate earnings seasons, a handful of well-known stocks including PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines are slated to report results. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday 9:45 a.m.: Services PMI (June final) 10 a.m.: ISM services (June) Tuesday 8:30 a.m.: International trade (May) Wednesday 10 a.m.: Wholesale trade (May) 2 p.m.: FOMC minutes 3 p.m.: Consumer credit (May) Thursday 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims (week ended July 4) Earnings: PepsiCo Friday Earnings: Delta Air Lines
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Monday, July 6
