Iran’s Khatam-al Anbiya HQ announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all maritime traffic. The military headquarters cites US breaches of the war-ending deal and ongoing Israeli ceasefire violations, along with the non-withdrawal in Lebanon. They warned this is only the “first step.” The Revolutionary Guard put out a similar statement yesterday.
There is an under-discussed risk that Iran wants to keep fighting. They have this tremendous leverage right now with Trump openly admitting that the oil situation would get very bad in four weeks. They may also sense that the US will never stay in the current deal as Trump is taking criticism from even his strongest supporters, so better to fight now than later. It’s also looking like an opportunity to crack the US-Israel relationship, which would be a huge win for them.
On the other hand, it’s tough to imagine Iran ever getting a better deal then the one they are getting now, so the politicians within Iran — who also likely fear for their lives — are trying to get them to take the deal.
Ultimately, though, there is a supposed ceasefire in Lebanon that is being endlessly broken by all sides and it’s tough to imagine this deal will ever work because of that. Israel says it won’t withdraw from Southern Lebanon and Iran’s military command is insisting that’s a pre-condition.
On the US side, Trump looks desperate to find a way out and Witkoff and Kushner are in Switzerland. VP Vance said he expects to go to Switzerland “in the next couple days” and says he’s confident they can maintain a ceasefire.
For now, the question is whether Iran will try to enforce this latest ‘closure’ of the Strait of Hormuz via military means. WTI finished higher by nearly $1 on Friday despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announcement.
Update: The Iran negotiating team is still going to Switzerland and a spokesman for them said: “Our focus is to demand accountability regarding other side’s commitments & clarify exactly how they plan to fulfill them. If any part of their commitments is left unfulfilled, entire MoU will face problem.”
