May 2026
Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation
Edward Herbst, Scott Konzem, and Cristina Scofield
Abstract:
We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes around the baseline. We construct a taxonomy with six categories: aggregate demand, aggregate supply, external risks, financial conditions, fiscal policy, and expectation shifts. Staff qualitative risk assessments complemented the scenario composition. Comparing scenario forecasts to realized outcomes, the most accurate scenarios often anticipated major macroeconomic developments even when magnitudes were missed, revealing the value and limits of scenario analysis for central bank risk management.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.033
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Last Update:
May 29, 2026
