Inc.’s price action following its fiscal 2025 earnings release suggests its stock price may drift sideways or even lower in the near to mid-term. However, as tepid the price response was, the results were robust, pointing to accelerating business and a timeline to profits, causing analysts to cheer. It is the analyst response to focus on in Q2 2026, as they are bullish on this stock, have increased their coverage, and are driving the forecasts higher.
MarketBeat tracked a handful of revisions immediately before and after the release, including numerous price target increases and affirmations that extended the trend. Targets from Needham & Company, H.C. Wainwright, and Lake Street Capital put ONDS stock in the $19 to $23 range, above the consensus at the low end, with consensus price target forecasting more than 60% upside. A move to $23, the high target as of late March, is more than 125% upside and potentially a low target, given the improving outlook.
Ondas Holdings Accelerates in Q4: Guides for Acceleration in FY2026
Ondas Holdings had a robust quarter in Q4 2025, driven by new clients and increasing orders for its drone, counter-drone, unmanned, and surveillance systems. Revenue grew by 629% to just over $30 million, accelerating sequentially by nearly 5,000 basis points as the company transitions to its operating phase. The only bad news was an increase in operating expenses, which widened losses. However, the increased expenses were tied to growth and acquisition activity, not core operations, and are expected to produce accretive results in fiscal year 2026 (FY2026).
Guidance is a reason to be bullish on this stock. Not only is the forecast robust, expecting $39 million in Q1 revenue and at least $375 million for the year, but it also expects sequential acceleration in Q1, year-over-year acceleration, and significantly outpaces the consensus estimate. Consensus for Q1 is approximately 5,000 bps or 50% shy of company expectations, and there is a chance the company was cautious in its forecasts.
The Mistral merger and follow-on acquisitions and partnerships expanded the company’s access to government contracts and capacity to fill them. The result is a swelling backlog, up 240% sequentially in Q4 to $68.3 million, worth nearly double the Q1 forecast and pointing to continuing strength this year.
Ondas Strengthens Balance Sheet: Dilutive Headwinds Abate in 2026
Among the headwinds for Ondas’ stock price in late 2025 and early 2026 was the need for capital. Capital-raising activities resulted in approximately 200% shareholder dilution and significant warrant liability on the balance sheet, but it is over for now. Ondas is now well-capitalized, has a multi-year operating runway, and is unlikely to need additional capital except in the event of an acquisition.
Even so, the approximately $1.5 billion in cash and equivalents raised is sufficient to drive growth, including acquisitions, in the near term, leaving the market free and clear to advance absent other bearish forces.
Short interest is a concern, but it presents as much opportunity as risk. At nearly 35%, short interest effectively caps the market in early 2026 but may not keep it down for much longer. The FY2026 guidance and the potential to outperform it may catalyze short covering and underpin a price rebound. Institutional activity aligns with this outlook, as institutions own more than 35% of the stock, are accumulating aggressively, and ramped activity to record highs in Q1 2026.
Ondas Is Trending Higher: Winding Up in March for a 2026 Rally
Ondas catalysts include ongoing M&A activity, including the planned acquisition of World View Enterprise, as well as the expansion of the robot-as-a-service business. World View Enterprise is a high-altitude balloon-based surveillance platform providing services to the government and industries. It completes Ondas’ surveillance-integration capability, providing high-altitude support for the lower-altitude and ground-based components. Additionally, the partnership with Palantir is driving business. The collaboration integrates critical Palantir AI technology into Ondas drones and robots, enabling a scalable mission-critical capability.
Tepid as Ondas’ post-release price action was, it isn’t all that bearish, despite falling by 3.4% the day of the release.
Price action is winding up within a range aligning with its uptrend, setting up for another run higher. Short-sellers continue to influence the action, but long-term buy-and-hold activity offsets it. Volatility is likely to continue, with subsequent peaks and troughs extending the bullish trend.
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