By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Uh-oh, the bitcoin price pattern that presaged the final and deepest phases of previous bear markets has appeared again.
In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk discussed a bearish flip in long-term averages on a chart that bundles three days of price action into each candle. It warned that a similar occurrence in 2014 deepened the bear market and, within a week, bitcoin crashed to under $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from the peak of roughly $20,000.
Cut to April 2022. The same pattern occurred, with the same result. BTC’s bear market deepened and prices cratered to $17,500 from $32,000, having already dropped from the late 2021 record of nearly $70,000.
Now, the pattern’s back again (check the Technical Analysis section). While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, history calls for caution. Some savvy traders are preparing for a deeper crash below $60,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 Index lost even more. Still, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in three days.
“That breadth of demand signals absorption rather than speculation,” Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email. “On-chain data reinforces the shift: wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated through the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply thins.”
Even so, ETF flows need to persist to lift BTC sustainably higher, Kalchev said.
In traditional markets, oil prices remain supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty and the potential for an escalation over the weekend. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI MoM for January est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%)
- Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for January est. 2.9% (Prev. 3%)
- Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: Canada GDP growth rate annualized for Q4 (Prev. 2.6%); QoQ (Prev. 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- 1inch DAO is voting to allocate 2,000,000 USDC from its treasury to the Aave V3 market on Ethereum to generate yield. Voting ends March 1.
- Unlocks
- Feb. 28: Grass (GRASS) to unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.09 million.
- Feb. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 7.94% of its circulating supply worth $39.34 million.
- March 1: to unlock 1.13% of its circulating supply worth $40.97 million.
- Token Launches
- Feb. 27: Fabric Protocol (ROBO) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, Bitget, KuCoin, and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $67,423.09 (24hrs: -0.95%)
- ETH is down 0.89%at $2,012.51 (24hrs: -2%)
- CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 1,968.26 (24hrs: -2.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.006% (-6.5799% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.74
- Gold futures are unchanged at $5,191.50
- Silver futures are up 2.82% at $90.05
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.16% at 58,850.27
- Hang Seng closed up 0.95% at 26,630.54
- FTSE is up 0.39% at 10,888.78
- Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 6,161.33
- DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.03% at 49,499.20
- S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.18% at 22,878.38
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.1% at 34,501.96
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.4% at 3,772.90
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 3.987%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% at 6,900.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.19% at 25,033.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.48% at 49,294.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.49% (-0.11%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02973 (-1.06%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,055 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.31
- Total fees: 3.43 BTC / $232,808
- CME Futures Open Interest: 107,780 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s long-term moving averages have crossed bearish just as in 2018, 2022. (TradingView)
- The chart shows BTC’s price swings on a three-day time frame in candlestick format from 2024-2025 and 2018-2022. Each candle bundles the price action seen over three days, or 72 hours.
- On this chart, moving averages of 50- and 200-candles have crossed bearish.
- Similar patterns led to deeper slides in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $181.06 (-1.57%), unchanged in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $87.21 (+4.90%), unchanged in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.94 (-3.90%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.73 (-0.49%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.45 (-1.40%), +15.98% at $9.80
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.09 (+0.06%), +0.12% at $17.11
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (-0.55%), -1.50% at $17.71
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-0.10%), -0.77% at $10.36
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.17 (-0.40%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.45 (-1.69%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.40 (-1.66%), +0.62% at $134.23
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.19 (-4.10%), +0.24% at $8.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.21 (-3.09%), +0.55% at $7.25
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.76 (-7.87%), +0.22% at $0.76
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-3.39%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $254.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.81 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $6.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
